Like Kyle Busch, Martin has three victories, but he also has three DNFs, most of any driver in the top 16. A rare mistake at Daytona, where his car pushed up the track into Kenseth's, cost him dearly, but Martin isn't likely to squander the 30 bonus points he earned with his three wins. Odds: 8-5.

David Reutimann (14th, minus 74 points).
Reutimann has been flirting with the top twelve all season, sometimes in, sometimes out. In order to boost his chances, he'll have to find a way to post a respectable finish at Watkins Glen, where he finished 33rd last year in his only start at the road course. Reutimann's hopes took a major blow in the same 4 July Daytona wreck that sidelined Dale Earnhardt Jr. Odds: 3-1.

Jeff Burton (15th, minus 105 points).
Burton's team has been making gains, even if it hasn't shown in the race results. It's tough to write off Burton's chances to make his fourth straight Chase, but he'll have to do better than the six top tens he posted in the first 18 races—and he'll have to pass at least three other drivers to get there. Odds: 2-1.

Clint Bowyer (16th, minus-135 points).
Bowyer's story is one of a season in decline. He claimed three top fives in the first six races, none since. In a six-race stretch that started at Texas and ended at Lowe's, Bowyer dropped precipitously from second to 17th in points. Without a 180-degree turnaround at a Richard Childress Racing organisation gutted by cutbacks in manufacturer support, Bowyer won't make it. Odds: 4-1.

Reid Spencer / Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service