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On the question of who is making claims, that's not how the insurance industry works. They supposedly assess the putative risk of somebody making a claim, IOW premiums are not calculated from previous claims. Insurance companies have to factor in the likelihood of somebody successfully suing based on previous court cases, and of course the damages likely to be awarded. And remember insurance isn't just about personal damages and the like. Other things are covered such as the event being called off.
Then there's the fact that the insurers are not necessarily the most honest businesses in the world. They also work out premiums based on things like how much they think they can get away with charging or how much they have lost in other areas.