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Just from statistics, Guintoli can never beat Laverty... Guintoli never finished a mondial championship in the top 5.
Sure, Guintoli won races, but was never consistent.
However, they are both on a factory bike, a WC-winning bike! They should both be able to compete for the title, if not..
This is Guintoli's first big chance. If he can't make it happen on the Aprilia, I fear his career is over...