Lewis Hamilton will be champion if:

He finishes first or second
He finishes third with Alonso 2nd or lower
He finishes fourth with Alonso 2nd or lower
He finishes fifth with Alonso 2nd or lower (they would be tied on points, but Hamilton would win tie-break based on second places)
He finishes sixth with Alonso 3rd or lower and Raikkonen 2nd or lower
He finishes seventh with Alonso 3rd or lower and Raikkonen 2nd or lower (Alonso and Hamilton would be tied on points, but Hamilton would win tie-break based on second places)
He finishes eighth with Alonso 4th or lower and Raikkonen 3rd or lower (Alonso and Hamilton would be tied on points, but Hamilton would win tie-break based on second places)

Fernando Alonso will be champion if:

He wins and Hamilton finishes 3rd or lower (Alonso would win tie break 5-4 on wins)
He finishes second with Hamilton 6th or lower
He finishes third with Hamilton 8th or lower and Raikkonen 2nd or lower
He finishes fourth with Hamilton not-scoring and Raikkonen 3rd or lower

Anything lower than fourth means Hamilton currently has more points

Kimi Raikkonen will be champion if:

He wins with Hamilton 6th or lower and Alonso 3rd or lower (if Hamilton 6th, Kimi wins 6-4 on wins tie-break)
He finishes second with Hamilton 8th and Alonso 4th or lower (both would result in tie that Kimi wins 5-4 on victories tie-break)

Anything lower than second means Hamilton currently has more points

 

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