Blundell's view: 2004 F1 season and Australian GP.

Hi folks...

I'm back - welcome to my first column of 2004.

That can mean only one thing - that the new season is nearly upon us, and I think it is going to be quite exceptional.

I really believe we could see some fireworks this year, and the anticipation and excitement coming off the back of last year is huge. All in all, it should be good.

On the regulation front, there have been a number of changes, so let's start with them - or, at least, the most significant ones - to refresh your memory.

First up, and perhaps most significant, is the one engine per weekend rule. I think that is a good change in that it will get some costs reviewed and lowered, although obviously, in the short term, there is going to have to be some development to make sure engines last over the weekend. Ultimately though, I think the future will be promising for that.

Secondly, we say goodbye to launch control. Again, this is good in my view, as it will help bring back some human element and skill. Although, saying that, there will probably be some other angles that people are looking at to try and help the driver.

The timetable has also been heavily revised and, as such, there will be no Friday morning 'roadsweepers' and no Friday qualifying session - with both timed sessions now scheduled for Saturday. Friday now will be more like an open test, but it should still give an indication of what the weekend holds, because ultimately people will have to run some fuel to get a balance on the low level.

It should also give a lot of people time to evaluate drivers for the future with the third car/third driver scenario - at least for those teams in the bottom six-places of the constructors' championship. For some of these teams, this will be a means of giving them an extra stream of revenue to top up their budgets while, on the other side of it, some of the bigger teams will use it as a way of running another driver and another car to give them more information and data. The obvious one for that would be Ferrari and Sauber, especially if the Scuderia decides to pay to have Luca Badoer in the third C23. Watch this space...

Of the rest, we will see pit-lane speeds increased and penalties assessed after incidents in the race - ie, no more drive-through or stop-go penalties. I'm all right with that to be honest, although I'm sure penalties after the race will create some controversy. At some point, if a driver has done something wrong during an event, there might be cause for them to be penalised during the event, as opposed to after it. It's a bit like a foul in football - if they do something wrong, they are sent off straight away. I'm not sure allowing someone to continue after they have caused a pretty big issue, which it is going to have to be to get some sort of reprimand after the event, is fair on the other drivers, and I'm sure that is something that will have to be looked at very carefully.

As for winter testing, what can we say? What conclusions can be drawn?

I think that we are still looking at a Ferrari situation. I think Ferrari will still be top of the pile - especially durability-wise. Admittedly, Michael Schumacher will have to fight as hard as ever to try and get himself a seventh world title, but I still think he will do it.

McLaren has also been very, very competitive in terms of outright speed in testing, but I worry that it may suffer in terms of durability. Williams will be strong, and the car definitely looks radical, so, if radical means performance, then we're looking for something healthy from the FW26.

People like Renault and BAR look like as though they are going to up the ante too, and I think the spread of power could be quite good, with differences in outright performance slimmed down between all the teams, which should make things more interesting for us.

At this time of year, as well as testing, we also gets lots of glitzy launches - or at least in some cases - and I think the biggest talking point has been the look of the Williams FW26.

It appears that the team has taken quite a radical step with the 'walrus' nose, and everybody is now waiting for it to line-up on the grid to see whether it actually does what it looks like it is going to do. We have seen things like this before, however, and I was one of the drivers at McLaren in 1995, when the team introduced the extra third wing - remember that? Looked very different, didn't it? Yet it wasn't a great car, so we will have to wait and see...

Focusing on Australia and, as I mentioned a moment ago, I think Ferrari is going to be strong. I think it is going to come out with a level of confidence, because the car will be reliable. I think we will also see Williams and McLaren sitting right in there, in the hub of things, followed closely by Renault and BAR.

Sauber should be sniffing around as well, trying to collect some valuable positions on the grid, ready to get some points by the end of the race. Overall though, I've got feeling that Ferrari will still take the race win in Australia, and that it could be Rubens Barrichello as much as it could be Michael - maybe even a bit more!

Can Ferrari retain the championship titles over the year, though? Yeah, I'm still inclined to say the Scuderia is going to pull it off again, although I don't by any means think that it will pull it off easily.

I think it will be the toughest season the team has had to contend with in recent years. At this moment in time, that's what I am going to go with - and stick with. I am willing to be shot down if I am proved wrong. In fact, I'd love to be proved wrong in many respects, because I'd love to see a different outfit win this year.

The F2004 hasn't been up against many other cars during testing but, for me, that doesn't mean anything. It is not something that Ferrari has done a tremendous lot of in recent seasons, anyway. Instead, the team has been plugging away on its own test circuit, and at other places, and seems confident of what it is achieving. Now we are going to see what the car is like up against the others. Going to be great, isn't it?

We've also seen a lot of people going around in cars putting in quick lap times [ie, BAR], but we've got to make sure it is true to form when we get to the first race. There is a lot of psychology and commercial aspects why that may be, and it might not be like that when we get to the first one - remember Prost setting the winter testing pace a few seasons ago? Look what happened to them...

Moving on to Williams, I think talk that uncertainty over the driver line-up for 2005 will affect them is rubbish - and that's putting it politely!

I've never seen a year like it, where everybody is already talking a year ahead. I think, in some ways, it is a little bit silly - it is bad enough having a silly season, and that keeps getting earlier and earlier in the year - but the situation of already talking about deals for 2005, when we haven't even kicked off 2004, you know... nobody can focus on that.

Even people that have got a contract in place - one that says they are going somewhere, or not going anywhere, in 2005 - won't be thinking about that. It doesn't make any difference, you've still got to carry the current season through, and a lot can happen. You know... someone could get injured, someone could have a very, very poor season and, on the face of it things, the future will then look very different. Let's not get carried away, let's look forward to this season and not wish it away prematurely.

McLaren looks to be very, very strong in terms of outright performance, but I don't think they will be quite up to it in terms of durability. Already Kimi Raikkonen is mentioning that he'd like to see more horsepower. However, if the team feels it is down on performance, and tries to up that, what normally occurs is a period of time with some reliability problems. It's slightly 'chicken and egg', but I do think the team will be the closest to Ferrari in terms of outright performance on the circuit. Whether it can actually maintain that for the whole grand prix is yet to be seen.

The situation with David Coulthard is also rather unique. He has everything to gain this season in my opinion, and nothing really to lose. It's a fact that his future is mapped out, and that he won't be with McLaren at the end of the year. As such, the pressure element shouldn't be quite so bad, so I'm sure he can do some good things and secure his future in F1 beyond this year.

Renault should also be contenders for a top-three finish at the end of the season, but I don't think it is in a position yet to fight for the title. It has still got some way to go yet. I think that, if it is consistent, it might nab third in the constructors', but that will surely be as good as it gets.

Of the midfield runners, BAR-Honda has being doing some great lap times in testing. Jenson Button is confident that he can take over the reins of being team leader, and he is obviously very fired up. He desperately needs to get a podium to start with, though, but has got the potential to do that. Takuma Sato also looks like he is doing a very solid job, and the 006 looks good out on the race circuit, but whether that potential remains to be seen when we kick off the season proper, time will tell.

Toyota has also been boosted now that it has signed Mike Gascoyne, Renault's former technical wiz, and he will be well installed there now. The team has been keeping itself to itself a little bit, and gently, gently nudging through on the test programme. Overall, I think it may come about a bit stronger out the box, and I believe it will develop into a competitive proposition during the year.

Jaguar and Jordan, however, will be a little bit stagnant. They have yet to sort out their core within the team, and will struggle to make leaps and bounds in terms of performance.

Jaguar has also seemingly opted for a pay driver in the shape of Christian Klien and his bags of Red Bull loot. He is certainly contributing to the budget, but it will be interesting to see if he has got the credentials to get the job done. He may turn out to be the sensation of the year - he went well in F3 last year - but Mark Webber is the guy. The team knows he is the benchmark and will want to make sure he starts the season off in the strongest possible way. That will be the best way to assess the new guy. It may be that Jaguar has got a good guy to partner the Aussie, but the court is still out.

Sauber, meanwhile, has made headlines as everybody - or at least quite a few people - has been branding it as a 'Ferrari junior team'. Obviously, there is a good strong relationship between the two of them - Ferrari has supplied Sauber with engines for some time, and now the Swiss team is getting the same engine and gearbox.

Indeed, in many ways, the car does look very similar to last year's Ferrari, but that basically just strengthens the relationship. What the outcome of that will be, we have yet to see, but I think there are a lot of people looking to see what comes out of it. I don't personally think there is anything underhand going on - in my view, it is quite plain to see how the relationship is and how it has formed a stronger alliance between the two of them. That is it.

As for Minardi, the greatest news is that the team is still here, which is something of an achievement in itself. It will be interesting to see how Gianmaria Bruni gets on - he has all the trademarks of being a good guy for future in my opinion. I watched him on circuit last year, when he ran with Paul Stoddart's team in Friday testing, and he definitely gives 110 per cent. I'm going to watch him with interest, because I think he has definitely got that something extra - maybe more than the car will be able to give him.

Their new car, the PS04B, is a combination of the 2002 Arrows and all the sweet things there, and what the Minardi design team has come up with based on last year's PS03. Hopefully the combination of the two will allow the team to compete a bit more in 2004.

As for Zsolt Baumgartner, he never really set the world alight when he did a few races with Jordan last season and, for all intents and purposes, he has stepped down a level now in terms of car performance. He is already rumoured to be struggling to make his financial contribution before the season has even kicked off so, in my view, it is yet to be decided if he will be in that seat for the foreseeable future.

Tyre-wise, I think Michelin will be strong, purely due to the mass of numbers. This doesn't mean though Bridgestone are out of the picture, though. It has a dedicated work force in Japan and won't give up the fight easily. Granted, with only Ferrari of the leading teams on its side, the company is limited and won't have the numbers out there and the data coming back. But, then again, with the added Sauber scenario, that could help and speed up the process of development.

If Bridgestone has a bad year, could it pull out? I would say that would be unlikely. To be honest, I don't think it will have that bad a year and, with Ferrari, is always going to be in with a shout. Michelin could also find that having several top teams takes points of any one title-winning campaign, which would work to the advantage of the Scuderia. Let's just see what goes on between them - this prediction lark is a tough job!

To sum up, I reckon this year will again be about the red cars, with my prediction being that Ferrari and Michael Schumacher will again take the titles.

In Australia, though, I reckon Rubens Barrichello will come out top on race day, with Kimi Raikkonen taking pole for McLaren. Will I be right? Let wait and see.

Enjoy the race.

MB

PS. You might be wondering what my plans are for this year - well in a few words it's 'more TV and more TV'. I am sniffing around to see what the future holds with me behind the wheel, but there isn't a great deal going on around there at the minute and unless there is any quality I would rather do more TV. Will keep you all posted - promise.