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Good on yamaha to tie down top gun there. They prolly would've lost him to ducati, yamaha been sucking at honda & ducati's tail pipes with no big innovation or support. Suzuki & KTM about to catch & pass them.
I agree with your post until the last sentence. He does have it.
Well I think it's a pretty shrewd move by Maveric and his agent. This way he has secured his ride in the event Rossi finds something and suddenly chooses to stick around for a while. Mav would then be vieing for the last factory Yamaha with Fabio. Now he is secure and frankly,  where would he have gone. Honda most likely bow to Marq and Alex to secure Repsol backing. Suzuki? Been there, done that. Ducati?. Well Miller surely must be first choice over existing rider changes if they come about and there are numerous Ducati riders knocking on the door with Ducati experience to boot. So imo Mav played his cards cleverly.  Next Yamaha champion? Afraid I dont see it.
No. You're not following me. Catalunya is NEW to teh series this year. Kawasaki is having a test there, but all teh rest will be completely new to it when they race there. Ducati had no such opportunity last year. Did they?
Rossi finished ahead of him in 2018 and had it not been for a missed race at Misano 2017 he may well have equalled his points there. Certainly the strongest last season though.
Let's face it, HRC doesn't even NEED a title sponsor if they didn't want one.  Honda as a corporation is only rivalled in MotoGP by VW Group (i.e. Audi/Ducati)