Why Ducati’s 2025 ‘crisis’ shouldn’t fool its swarming MotoGP rivals

As the final year of the current 1000cc regulations cycle comes into view, there is a palpable sense that 2026 could be a fiery year. On the backdrop of a looming rules shift, as well as one of the most unpredictable rider market frenzies maybe ever, genuine conversations are being had that Ducati’s reign as MotoGP’s dominator is in jeopardy.

Sorry. I should say there is hope that Ducati will face a stern championship challenge in 2026.

Because, for all the talk of a crisis and the wolves clawing at the door as 2025 wore on, Ducati was still in total control of the show. While not quite scaling the lofty heights of its 95% win rate in 2024, when it won all but one grand prix, Ducati still celebrated its second-best season ever in the premier class this year.

It won 17 grand prix from 22 rounds, which is a hit rate of 77.27%, while its podium percentage worked out at 97.72% across the campaign, down from 100% last year. It had half the number of podium lockouts at seven, down from 14, though that is exactly seven more than any other manufacturer achieved in 2025.

Its factory team swept to the triple-crown for only the third time in history, winning the riders’, manufacturers’ and teams’ titles.

Now, the factory team’s success was very much a one-rider effort for most of the campaign. Marc Marquez’s status quo-shifting powerplay to get a factory Ducati seat this year was repaid by him scoring 11 grand prix wins, 14 sprint victories, a run of seven successive 37-point weekends from Aragon until Hungary, and a coronation with five rounds to spare in Japan.

Ducati hasn’t seen a single season of dominance like it since its first title-winning year in 2007 with Casey Stoner.

Alex Marquez picked up three wins for Ducati on the Gresini Racing GP24, while Pecco Bagnaia had two on the factory GP24 and rookie Fermin Aldeguer one on the sister Gresini-run GP24. As far as winning goes, it’s another year where four of its entrants stood on the top step of the podium.

Some of its number drops compared to 2024 can be easily explained by the loss of world champion Jorge Martin to Aprilia, while its stable shrank from eight to six bikes, as Pramac ripped up its title-winning partnership to join a rebuilding Yamaha. Given the year Marco Bezzecchi had on the Aprilia in 2025, it’s hard not to have seen him do similar levels of winning on a Ducati at VR46 had he stayed.

The job that Marc Marquez did, particularly in how he was able to be consistent on a GP25 package that Bagnaia and Fabio Di Giannantonio struggled with, has led to accusations that 2025 was largely saved by the 32-year-old.

Certainly, his absence from the final four rounds due to a shoulder injury suffered in a collision at the Indonesian Grand Prix showed just how valuable he had been up to that point. Aprilia rocked to a double at Phillip Island and was untouchable on the final two Sundays in Portugal and Valencia.

Bagnaia’s ongoing, and frankly baffling, troubles meant the factory team scored just two points from the final five grands prix, and those were at the hands of Marquez’s stand-in Nicolo Bulega. Di Giannantonio’s well-earned factory bike step wasn’t enough to bring him back to winning ways, while the GP24s of Alex Marquez and Aldeguer were very long in the tooth against an ever-developing factory Aprilia come the last races.

That said, second in the championship was Alex Marquez on the Gresini-run GP24. He was 78 points clear of Marc Marquez come the end of the campaign, but was still 114 points ahead of third-placed Bezzecchi.

Had Marc Marquez been out for longer in 2025, or not raced at all, Ducati still wins the championship with Alex Marquez.

Marc Marquez’s contribution on track in 2025 firmly lifts this season into one of the best for a rider ever. But to suggest Ducati’s 2025 championship success rested solely on him is to ignore the fine job Alex Marquez did on an older bike. And even with an older bike, he still bested the might of a galvanised Aprilia.

The elephant in the room Aprilia mustn’t ignore

The fact Aprilia ended 2025 as the second-best manufacturer, having achieved its best season statistics ever, really is something worthy of indefinite praise. Its big-money play to snare Jorge Martin for this season ran off the rails just 13 laps into testing at Sepang in early February.

The hellish tale that followed could have seriously hindered everything about its season. KTM, for all of its statements to the contrary, did ultimately admit its winter financial struggles set the MotoGP project back in the first half of the year.

Aprilia, minus its champion star signing, helmed by a rookie to the bike in Bezzecchi, an actual rookie in Ai Ogura, and a Raul Fernandez who did appear to fall on management’s wrong side in the first half of the campaign, managed to get off to an encouraging start.

And it only got better as it improved the bike’s stability problems. The Silverstone win was a dose of good fortune, but Aprilia never really let up from that point. From the summer, Bezzecchi would be the rider regularly leading or battling with Marc Marquez. In his absence, he was able to grab two more grand prix wins in the final two rounds.

What will have caught Ducati’s eye, particularly in the second half of the season, was the step that Aprilia was able to make on a Sunday. Technical director Fabiano Sterlacchini said this was a product of the 2025 RS-GP needing longer to set up on Fridays, but with the trade-off being a stronger race bike.

KTM’s Pedro Acosta always made a point of noting that Ducati, from Saturdays, tended to take a step. In the latter part of the season, that began to diminish.

Arguably, Aprilia should have taken four wins inside the final five rounds. Bezzecchi had great pace at Mandalika, but couldn’t see it through after his lap-one collision with Marc Marquez. Aprilia was still able to win in Australia with Fernandez, but Bezzecchi was almost certainly denied that day by his penalty as a consequence of the Mandalika incident.

Still, the absence of Marc Marquez is something that cannot - and should not - be ignored by Aprilia. For the most part, it has kept its feet on the ground. It acknowledges that 2026 offers an opportunity, but there is a wariness that nobody really knows what would have happened had Marquez been fit in the final five rounds.

Given two circuits - Phillip Island and Valencia - were anticlockwise layouts, there is a strong case to suggest Marquez would have made life harder for Aprilia. Sepang has never been a strong venue for Marc Marquez, but if Bagnaia was able to challenge for the podium, its hard to imagine the No.93 wouldn’t have done the same.

2027 development could pose a trap for Ducati’s rivals

The development freeze imposed on engines for everyone barring Yamaha, in theory, means the step Ducati could make in 2026 will be a small one. It is adamant that the problems the likes of Bagnaia and Di Giannantonio struggled with were nothing to do with the engine it used, after abandoning the full 2025-spec pre-season.

Bagnaia’s front-end issues seemingly centred on the rear ride height device introduced for 2025, though Ducati really never was very forthcoming with explanations for the double world champion’s slump.

Early indications from the Valencia test are that Ducati seems to have done something to its bike that has been well received. On the “more hidden things” tried in Valencia, Bagnaia was especially positive: “We managed to do a good job, the feeling on braking and entry was much better…Very happy about the things we tried, and happy with the new fairing that looks good. But we need to do more laps because this track [Ricardo Tormo] is not very good for the aerodynamics.”

Alex Marquez, who will get a factory bike for 2026, noted: “They are very, very similar bikes. There are different parts, but it was just about testing to see which direction to take and how to put everything together. There’s a mix of things that we still need to understand…I felt good, comfortable from the first session.”

Davide Tardozzi admitted earlier this year that Ducati eased off development of its GP25 because of Marc Marquez’s domination. Now forced to dig into his war chest, general manager Gigi Dall’Igna - as he so often does - will likely produce exactly what Ducati needs to take that half-step to keep its rivals in line.

Though it needs to dig a little deeper than perhaps it anticipated, Ducati still has several luxuries in hand that its rivals do not.

The loss of Jorge Martin and Pramac threatened to weaken the Ducati roster for 2025. But it's come through with all six of its riders standing on the podium more than once last season. It has four active race winners, and two on its books with past proven pedigree.

Fermin Aldeguer has developed much faster than expected into a rider capable of running at the front, while Alex Marquez’s step has come as a welcome bonus at a time when Pecco Bagnaia’s form is in serious flux.

And, of course, it will have a fit and healthy Marc Marquez back in time for testing. While there is still the uncertainty of steps he will ultimately feel happy with Ducati taking, he has a proven track record of just making things work.

For all of the desire to call the GP25 a misstep, he ensured that there is no way it can ever be considered a bad bike. While there was an obvious adaptation period to the GP23 last season, it did take him until Aragon to finally win on it. From the off in 2025, he looked comfortable and competitive.

Even if the GP26 doesn’t really evolve much in the way others would like, that will still likely be good enough for Marquez. And good enough for Marquez is still a step ahead of everyone else.

The other thing Ducati has that it can play to its advantage in 2026 is the impending regulations change. At a certain point, all development resources are going to have to go into the 2027 project.

Last season was the first time we’ve seen the concessions system actually get to Ducati, as its limited testing and lack of wildcards meant it couldn’t make the same gains as others. That will continue into 2026, for sure, but the burden is on Ducati’s rivals to make the most of that without falling into the trap of devoting too many resources to a title fight to the detriment of 2027.

While Ducati won’t want to lose the championship, there is more pressure on the likes of Aprilia or KTM if an opportunity presents itself in 2026. In that scenario, either of those two manufacturers may be willing to take from 2027 to claim something that might not come around again so easily in 2026. Ducati, with all of its success to this point, can afford to lose a battle to win the war.

Without question, Ducati start 2026 closer to its rivals than we’ve seen since it started winning riders’ titles again in 2022. But that gap isn’t as small as it looks…