WorldSBK title permutations: How Bautista can be crowned champion in Mandalika

With an 82-point lead over Toprak Razgatlioglu in the WorldSBK standings, Alvaro Bautista has his first match-point this weekend in Mandalika, but how can he win the title?
Alvaro Bautista, Ducati WorldSBK Catalunya
Alvaro Bautista, Ducati WorldSBK Catalunya

The Ducati rider has been phenomenal throughout the 2022 WorldSBK campaign and will win the title if he outscores Razgatlioglu by 17 points and Jonathan Rea by one point. 

Race One Scenario:

Scenario #1: If Bautista Wins and Razgatlioglu finishes eighth or lower then he will be crowned champion in Race 1.

Rea, who’s title chances are hanging on by a thread, needs to win every Mandalika race to keep himself in the title hunt for Phillip Island.

Superpole Race Scenario:

Scenario #1: If Bautista Wins Race 1 and Razgatlioglu finishes 2nd, then Bautista needs to win the Superpole Race to clinch the title.

Scenario #2: If Razgatlioglu wins Race 1 and Bautista finishes 2nd, Bautista needs to win the Superpole Race and Razgatlioglu finishes P9 or lower to seal the title.

Race 2 Scenario:

Scenario #1: If Bautista wins and Razgatlioglu is second in Race 1 but Razgatlioglu wins the Superpole Race ahead of Bautista, then Bautista needs to finish 12th or higher to seal the title.

Scenario #2 Razgatlioglu wins Race 1 from Bautista and then wins the Superpole Race with the Spaniard again in second place, Bautista then needs to finish P3 or higher to seal the title.

Regardless of who wins each race in Mandalika, Razgatlioglu needs to be within 62 points heading to Phillip island for the championship fight to still be on. 

The same goes for Rea although the Kawasaki rider will need Bautista to make mistakes in order to score the points needed to still be in with a chance at the final round. 

If Bautista wins the championship this weekend then it will mark the first time in Ducati’s history that they won both the MotoGP and WorldSBK championships in the same season. 

Bautista winning the title would also give Ducati their first WorldSBK championship since 2011 when Carlos Checa was victorious.

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