Can a forgotten MotoGP champion end a five-year victory wait in Malaysia?

For a championship battle that looked like a formality from the summer onwards, its conclusion has oddly heralded something of a reset for the 2025 MotoGP season. The unfortunate absence of Marc Marquez due to injury has opened the door for new winners to step through.

Gresini’s Fermin Aldeguer capitalised on the unusual conditions at the Indonesian Grand Prix to seal a maiden win as a rookie. Two weeks later, Raul Fernandez stunned on his Trackhouse Aprilia to claim his first grand prix victory in Australia.

Circumstances conspired to make these standout results for two young campaigners a reality. For Aldeguer, the loss of Marco Bezzecchi and Marquez from the Indonesian Grand Prix, coupled with the stiffer rear tyre, opened the way for him. For Fernandez, it was a double long lap penalty for Bezzecchi and a poor qualifying for a rapid Fabio Di Giannantonio on the VR46 Ducati that offered him a window of opportunity.

And after Friday at the Malaysian Grand Prix, normality doesn’t look like it’s returning anytime soon. Bezzecchi and Aprilia at large struggled in practice, with no RS-GP currently inside the Q2 places. Ducati could only get one bike inside the top six, while Alex Marquez - the strongest at the Sepang test - crashed twice on Friday.

KTM’s Pedro Acosta led the way in a sight that is becoming very familiar now, though he is yet to prove he has everything underneath him to propel his speed into a long-awaited maiden grand prix victory.

The stars of Friday at Sepang were spread across Yamaha and Honda, with five Japanese bikes inside the direct Q2 places. LCR Honda’s Johann Zarco was the best of them in second, as he finds his form again, having moved away from HRC’s recent updates. Jack Miller was the leading Yamaha in third overall.

Reading into long running is hard at the best of times, but more so this weekend, given the sporadic rainfall that affected both sessions.

Nevertheless, one name has managed to stand out amongst the crunched numbers to tease a potentially massive resurgence for a world champion often overlooked, and whose wait for a second premier class victory now stretches to five years.

Honda has genuine shot at second MotoGP win of 2025

The progress that Honda has made across the 2025 season makes it hard to imagine the brand not being a regular contender for podiums in 2026. From the off, there have been tangible gains, which have only extended as more updates were brought to the RC213V.

While its French Grand Prix victory with Zarco was noteworthy, Honda’s run to third at the Japanese Grand Prix a few weeks ago in dry conditions was arguably the more important result.

It was a result that highlighted several key things about the 2025 Honda. One, the engine is clearly pulling better than in recent years. And two, the bike isn’t having the traction woes that it used to. This, allied to the better agility of the bike, has made it far more user-friendly.

If there’s one place that tests all of those elements pretty well, it’s Sepang. Joan Mir topped out at 336.4km/h through the speed charts on Friday, matching MotoGP’s fastest-ever bike - the KTM RC16. Mir found himself in fourth overall, maintaining the strong one-lap speed he’s had of late.

But it was in the race running where he really piqued interest. Over a six-lap representative run on the soft rear, the 2020 world champion averaged 1m59.107s. That is massively quicker than anyone else in our top 10 sample, so take that with a pinch of salt.

However, there are enough signs to suggest that Honda is very much in the game. Zarco’s average pace was close to that of Pedro Acosta and Alex Marquez’s, as was Luca Marini’s.

From Mir’s perspective, he said he felt quick from the opening lap. And when it came time to push on a time attack, the Honda didn’t bite back, as he has often found to be the case this season. That isn’t totally surprising. Honda has carried out quite a bit of recent testing at Sepang with Aleix Espargaro, providing HRC with a ton of relevant data to work with.

Two hurdles lie ahead for Honda and Mir. The first is qualifying. There is one-lap speed in that Honda, but Mir hasn’t been higher than 12th since he was second in Japan. In Australia, team-mate Marini felt qualifying was the area where he was being let down the most. Maintaining the time attack speed Honda showed on Friday will be an important next step.

Then there is tyre wear. Mir didn’t suggest he suffered any on his “day without problems” on Friday. But he’s just not certain what kind of tyre wear to expect.

“There are still some question marks like the tyres and which one is better, if the soft can reach the end of the race,” he explained. “We have to work a little bit more on the race pace side, but the important thing is that when everyone pushes and we push, we are there in front.”

“It’s not that we struggle in one point in particular, we just have to understand if we can make the race with not a huge drop on the rear tyre – and also the front, we don’t know how the bike reacts with 10, 12, 15 laps. So, that’s important that we understand tomorrow.”

Mir isn’t getting ahead of himself. And understandably. His 2020 world title and his last - and only - MotoGP race victory are now five years in the past, with an immense amount of struggling taking place in the time since.

But there is real hope of something big coming Mir’s way on Sunday.

Tyre wear uncertainty remains for KTM’s best hope

Pedro Acosta’s form of late can be classed as fast but scrappy. For all of his speed, there are still too many mistakes being made to deny him either track time in practices or good results. That was the case again on Friday at Sepang, as he lost time to two crashes in FP1 and Practice before ending the day fastest outright.

His crash in Practice, a slow-speed front-end fall at Turn 9, came just minutes into the session. And it cost him dry track time in a session that would be affected by light rainfall with around half an hour remaining.

Precious track time is not something KTM can afford to lose right now, as it still looks to find a fix to its tyre wear problems. These impacted Acosta in Australia, where he fell from early victory contention to a distant fifth.

The same issues struck him at Mandalika, but he was able to defend his position better at a track where overtaking isn’t the easiest. But it’s been something that has plagued KTM all year, only now it’s really starting to hurt.

Acosta was among the best in terms of race pace in Practice on his factory KTM, and is clearly the marque’s only hope of a decent result at this stage. Tech3 stand-in Pol Espargaro was impressive to get into Q2 directly in eighth, but his race pace was nowhere near Acosta’s. The next-best KTM behind him was Brad Binder in 17th.

Having had to watch two young riders get their first wins recently, Acosta is doing a good job at hiding his frustration at this. If KTM can find something that stops the bike chewing through its rubber, then Acosta is in a good spot to mount a serious challenge for victory.

Pre-round favourites face contrasting fortunes on Friday

One name that was figured to feature at the sharp end from the word go in Malaysia was Gresini’s Alex Marquez. He was quick enough in testing in February that he’d have likely walked the grand prix had it been held at Sepang just a few days later.

A sprint winner at Sepang on the Ducati in 2023, it’s not unrealistic to suggest that the 29-year-old is the Italian marque’s only realistic hope of winning the Malaysian Grand Prix right now.

Ducati was humbled on Friday at Sepang. Pecco Bagnaia fell out of the Q2 places in 12th, though felt he had more in the tank even if his feeling from Australia hasn’t improved as massively as he would have hoped.

VR46’s Fabio Di Giannantonio was the best of the Ducati’s in sixth on his GP25, with team-mate Franco Morbidelli behind him, while Fermin Aldeguer missed the Q2 cut in 13th.

Di Giannantonio’s long run pace looked solid enough, but Alex Marquez was quicker than everyone in our sample aside from Joan Mir. As already mentioned, it is very unlikely to be a genuine near-0.350s gao in pace between Mir and the rest. So, Marquez’s form is worth taking note of, even if there is some work still to do.

Two crashes left him with neck pain and just clinging onto a Q2 place in ninth at the end of Practice. Marquez admitted this did condition some of his work in the afternoon running.

The biggest surprise of the day came from Aprilia, who didn’t get a single bike into the top 10. Sepang hasn’t been the kindest circuit to Aprilia over the years, but more was expected from Marco Bezzecchi than 15th at the end of Practice.

He admitted his team simply “weren’t able to find a step” on the RS-GP to be competitive in the time attack phase. But that also extends to race pace, with Bezzecchi averaging 1m59.811s on a soft rear on Friday afternoon.

That’s a big deficit to close down on Saturday with limited running available to him. But it’s also not the first time that he’s been able to come from Q1 and turn his weekend around. So, Aprilia at least has that in its back pocket.

But Aprilia is going to need a significant turnaround if it hopes to keep up the momentum that is leading everyone to consider it a title threat in 2026…