F1 driver market: What next if Max Verstappen signs for Mercedes?

Max Verstappen continues to be heavily linked with Mercedes as he weighs up his long-term future options.

A bombshell report in Italian media claims Verstappen has already said yes to Mercedes boss Toto Wolff and is actively looking to ditch Red Bull for the upcoming 2026 season.

Such a move would leave George Russell or Kimi Antonelli without a drive and scrambling to find a new home, while Red Bull would be in need of a replacement for their star driver.

While the speculation continues to rumble on, we’ve considered the hypothetical domino effect that a Verstappen-Mercedes switch could have on the rest of the F1 driver market.

Red Bull snap up George Russell 

Verstappen joining Mercedes would leave Red Bull in trouble and scrambling for a replacement.

Red Bull have shown interest in current championship leader Oscar Piastri in the past, but prizing the Australian away from McLaren would be incredibly unlikely when considering McLaren and Red Bull’s vastly different competitive states.

Fernando Alonso could be an option but this would only be a short-term solution, while Red Bull might also try their luck with Charles Leclerc, whose own future has recently been the subject of speculation.

But assuming it was Russell who made way for Verstappen, the 27-year-old Briton and four-time grand prix winner would be a smart and logical option for Red Bull, particularly given he would be a free agent.

With Russell out of a drive, Red Bull would represent the most appealing destination, unless…

Aston Martin come calling for Russell

Following his victory at the Canadian Grand Prix, it emerged that Russell is on Aston Martin’s radar for 2026.

Russell has so far remained loyal to Mercedes, insisting he has spoken to no other teams. But with the Verstappen-Mercedes rumours intensifying, Russell might have to start thinking about safeguarding his own future with back-up options.

Aston Martin are reportedly considering Russell as part of the team’s future plans ahead of the biggest regulation change in F1 history.

A move for Russell would be complicated by the fact that current Aston Martin driver Alonso has a deal in place for 2026, while Lance Stroll is on a rolling contract to race for the team owned by his dad.

With Stroll unlikely to get booted out of his father’s team, Alonso would be the driver who would make way if this situation were to unfold…

A reunion at Alpine for Fernando Alonso?

The F1 silly season was truly sparked into life in Canada, with a paddock rumour linking Alonso with a shock return to Alpine.

The Spaniard, who turns 44 later this month, was seen visiting the Alpine motorhome no fewer than four times during the course of the Montreal weekend. These trips were downplayed by Aston Martin, but stranger things have happened at Alpine in recent years.

After all, Franco Colapinto’s future at Alpine looks increasing insecure as he struggles to match the ruthless Flavio Briatore’s high expectations alongside Pierre Gasly.

Now Briatore is back at the helm, might Alonso be tempted to return to the Enstone-based squad with whom he won both of his world titles for an unprecedented fourth stint?

Red Bull might need two drivers

Should Verstappen exit Red Bull, the team might be in need of not one, but two new drivers.

Yuki Tsunoda has struggled to get to grips with the RB21 since replacing Liam Lawson and while he is likely to remain for the rest of the season, it is hard to imagine the Japanese racer staying on for 2026 - even if Verstappen left.

With Honda departing at the end of 2025, Tsunoda was already facing the prospect of an exit from the Red Bull family, and his performances at the senior team have done little for his chances of being retained. His future is said to be "hanging by a thread". 

One seat would likely be filled by Isack Hadjar, the next in line for a Red Bull drive, while the highly-rated Arvid Lindblad could be promoted from F2 to take his seat at sister team Racing Bulls.

In a world where Russell joins Aston Martin, Red Bull’s options to replace Verstappen become more hazy.

Could this open the door for Carlos Sainz to finally get a shot with Red Bull? 

The Spaniard was overlooked by Red Bull as an option for 2025 and ultimately joined Williams, but reportedly has an exit clause in his contract which would enable him to leave if Red Bull or Mercedes came knocking. 

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner appeared to indicate that is the case earlier this year when he said “options remain open with him [Sainz] in the future”.