Aprilia’s Ducati-humbling Mugello MotoGP form its biggest warning yet in 2026

The month of May could well prove to be the defining moment in Aprilia’s quest to win a first MotoGP world title. At the Catalan Grand Prix, it was dealt with its first major test of its credentials, as Marco Bezzecchi largely struggled, Jorge Martin couldn’t stop crashing, and friendly fire moments proved costly.

It was a test that Aprilia will admit it failed. But what would be a bigger failure would be not to learn from it.

Aprilia assembled its four riders, as well as management from its factory team and satellite partner Trackhouse, and laid down the rules of engagement going forward at Mugello. Crash understands that there was an effort to do this in Barcelona between Aprilia and Raul Fernandez, following an unnecessarily punchy attempt to overtake Jorge Martin in the sprint. The pair then came together in the grand prix.

Aprilia team manager Paolo Bonora noted during the Italian Grand Prix that the simple rule to follow for its riders was this: respect each other and think before you make a pass.

Bezzecchi and Martin’s early duel in the Italian Grand Prix in front of a record Mugello crowd showed that the memo had been received, read and understood. Fernandez’s runaway sprint victory kept him out of trouble, though he would draw the ire of the FIM stewards on Sunday when he bashed his way past Luca Marini trying to recover from a costly Turn 1 run-off at the start.

Two weeks on from what was nothing short of a disaster, Aprilia basked in the glory of a 1-2 on home soil, as Bezzecchi completed a clever ride to fend off Martin in the early stages, and then overhaul Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia later in the main race.

It was very nearly an Aprilia 1-2-3, for the second time in three rounds, but Bagnaia just about repelled Ai Ogura’s advances on the final lap.

Bezzecchi was peerless on Sunday. When he overtook Bagnaia on lap 14 into Turn 1, he instantly put almost a second between himself and the fading Ducati rider. By the chequered flag, he was 3.559s up the road from team-mate Martin, with Bagnaia 5.098s behind in third.

It wasn’t a perfect weekend for Bezzecchi. He claimed a stunning pole position, transforming Aprilia’s one-lap deficit to smart Ducati. But he could only manage fourth in the sprint, as Fernandez led Martin by 1.289s. But it was still a solid haul of points, which has boosted him 17 clear of Martin now, following his tactically sound ride in the grand prix.

“Pecco had a rocket and he passed me,” Bezzecchi said. “I saw that he was super quick, I didn’t panic. I tried to stay close, but not too close to overheat everything. I saw that Jorge was going backwards from us, and this gave me the confidence to wait. Then, as soon as I saw Jorge coming back to me, I said, ‘Now is the moment to lead’.”

Arguably, this could be viewed as a defining moment in Bezzecchi stepping into the role of title favourite he has so far tried to hide away from. He’s clearly still the fastest Aprilia rider, but the weight of expectation on his shoulders across the Mugello weekend could have easily seen him crumble.

Ducati has a big mountain to climb

What isn’t up for debate now is just how much of a step forward Aprilia is compared to Ducati. Mugello has been stained in red for much of the last 10 years. Between 2016 and 2025, Ducati only failed to win at Mugello twice.

Its streak of four successive Italian Grand Prix wins was snapped in rather humbling fashion. Aprilia locked out the front row, ending Ducati’s 15-year run of having at least one Desmosedici inside the top three in qualifying at Mugello.

That came as Ducati, and especially Fabio Di Giannantonio, looked rapid in practice in time attack trim. To rub salt into the wounds, Aprilia built up to its Q2 lockout by setting the fastest top speed in history in practice: 368.6km/h, set first by Martin in FP2, then again by Bezzecchi in the sprint. That’s a considerable milestone for a brand that topped out at 338.6km/h in its first Mugello race in its MotoGP return in 2015.

KTM previously held the top speed record, and the Ducati was punching well in a straight line still. But. in Q2, the closest Ducati could get to pole was 0.373s, though 0.010s extra would have been enough for Marc Marquez to sneak onto the front row in third. The RS-GP is rapid in a straight line, qualifies well, starts well and turns sharply. If there is such a thing as a perfect bike, then Aprilia is probably as close to having one as is humanly possible.

Ducati didn’t come away empty-handed from its homecoming, where it celebrated its 100th anniversary. Fabio Di Giannantonio was third in the sprint, albeit 3.287s off the win, while Pecco Bagnaia just about fended off the charging Ai Ogura on the final lap to maintain third in the grand prix.

But it’s a climbdown from what it has been used to at Mugello in recent years. And a concerning one, at that.

"Does it sting? Definitely, but they were better than us and have been stronger since the start of the championship,” Ducati’s Davide Tardozzi said. “It's up to us to work to put Marc and Pecco in a position to fight for the win. I think the gap is two to three tenths; we've figured out at which stage of the lap they [Aprilia] perform better than us.”

Bagnaia’s decent race pace was undone on Saturday by a poor start, which he says has been a common theme for him on the GP26. VR46’s Franco Morbidelli explained on Sunday that, from the GP25, the window with which to get the bike where it will start well is very, very narrow. Di Giannantonio has experienced this all too often in 2026, though he got caught out at Turn 1 in the melee having actually gotten away well.

Of the Ducati contingent, Di Giannantonio was the only one to have pace that could have given Aprilia something to think about. Bagnaia’s average pace doesn’t work out too badly in the above table. But if you remove the 1m48s ‘slow’ laps from the leading Aprilias, his average pace deficit is around 0.3s per lap to Bezzecchi.

Bagnaia has often struggled to maintain his tyres as a race goes on aboard the GP26. And that was the case again last Sunday. Up to that point, Bagnaia was riding like his old self, which is a positive sign that Ducati isn’t far away from genuinely unlocking his form again.

But tyre wear isn’t a problem the Aprilia suffers from. It seems to fire up its rubber quickly at the start of races and then keep the drop steady. The Ducati is still seemingly having to turn too much with the rear tyre. So, not only is it not cornering as well as the Aprilia, the way it has to do so is munching rubber.

Di Giannantonio remains Ducati’s top rider in the standings, but he’s 39 points down on Bezzecchi. That’s more than a race weekend’s worth now. In the constructors’ standings, Ducati is trailing by 30 points.

The problem Ducati has now is trying to determine how many more resources to commit to the 2026 season. We’re now into June, and development of the 2027 850cc bikes is in full swing. There is the risk that, focusing too much on trying to salvage this world championship, it could harm its 2027 project.

How to assess Marc Marquez’s return weekend?

Despite its current form, Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola is adamant that his manufacturer still hasn’t seen the best of Ducati yet because it hasn’t been able to fight against an in-form Marc Marquez.

“We started strong, but Marc Marquez isn’t 100% yet: we’ll see Ducati’s full potential when he is…I hope I can compete against the best Marc and the best Ducati; these are things that are good for our sport.”

Marquez already ruled out his return from shoulder surgery at Mugello as being the beginning of his title defence. He said the priority now is for him to bring his level back up again with a view to his future. Given the strain of Mugello on a rider with an injury to their right shoulder, it still seems a little odd that he would push to return in Italy if he didn’t at least think there was some hope of fighting for the championship still.

If there is, he will have to do so from a deficit of 102 points. It was a steady weekend for Marquez, who secured direct passage into Q2 on Friday afternoon. He was top Ducati in qualifying in fourth,  and was fifth in the sprint after briefly leading it.

In the grand prix, he battled hard with Pedro Acosta over fourth spot, but ultimately faded to seventh at the chequered flag. Still, 10.762s from the win is a strong starting point as he gets his shoulder working again.

More importantly, the numbness that had been plaguing him this season due to damaged metalwork after his Indonesia crash last year touching his radial nerve is gone.

“The fact that I didn’t know how it would be, I just gave everything until the body and the right arm said ‘okay, stop’,” he said.

“I remember that I felt super tired and I checked the pit wall and there were still ten laps to go.  There was a bit of frustration there. But I tried to fight. I knew that I would lose that fight, but I said, ‘if I need to sell my skin, I will sell it in an expensive way’.

“We had a great battle with many riders and the most important [thing] for me is that I completed all the weekend, and the starting point for me is that the rehabilitation on the bike was not bad.”

In theory, there will be a big step forward next weekend at the Hungarian Grand Prix, as he faces an anticlockwise circuit that will put less strain on his right shoulder.

What 100% fitness looks like is still the big unknown for Marquez. But a lot of doubts will have been cast from his mind following the Italian Grand Prix.