“I rule Marquez out of winning - his arm will fatigue!”
Marquez brilliantly went fastest in Qualifying at Motegi on Saturday after a thunderstorm had delayed the session, and even threatened it going ahead.
The six-time MotoGP champion, in just his second race back after a fourth major arm surgery, will start ahead of Johann Zarco and Brad Binder.
But asked if he was ruling Marquez out of winning on Sunday, Hodgson said: “I am. I have had the same injury that he has had, and so has Sylvain Guintoli. We know what it’s like.
“What will happen is - Marquez’s arm will fatigue so much that he will not be able to keep the pace. So much G-force will go through his body.
“What would Marquez do on a Ducati? Everyone can ride the Ducati. Imagine how fast he would be.”
Guintoli disagreed and said about Marquez’s hopes of winning at Motegi: “I wouldn’t rule him out!
“Unbelievable, the way he was riding, the way he puts everything on the line in every single corner. Beautiful!
“After his surgery he looks natural on the bike again.
“He’s an animal.”
Fabio Quartararo, the reigning champion who leads the 2022 MotoGP standings by just 10 points, starts in ninth.
Francesco Bagnaia, who trails Quartararo and is in far hotter form, will be 12th.
“We have got a proper race on tomorrow,” Hodgson said.
“I don’t think Marquez can keep the pace. But you’ve got Zarco and Binder on the front row. Binder will fancy his chances.
“Aleix Espargaro on the second row will fancy his chances.
“Francesco Bagnaia in 12th? It’s a big ask to work his way through.”
