What Toprak Razgatlioglu needs to win the 2025 WorldSBK title at Estoril

Toprak Razgatlioglu enters this weekend’s (10–12 October) Estoril WorldSBK with a mathematical shot at the title, but how can he confirm himself as a three-time World Superbike Champion before the final round in Jerez?

Razgatlioglu came into the weekend with a 36-point lead over Nicolo Bulega, but the Turkish rider's victories in both Race 1 and the Superpole Race in Estoril, with Bulega in second, mean he enters Race 2 44 points clear of the Italian.

With 62 points up for grabs in at the final round in Jerez on 17-19 October, and with his win tally of 21 unreachable for Bulega, Razgatlioglu must increase his points lead over Bulega by 18 points in Race 2 in order to be crowned champion in Portugal.

It would be the first time Razgatlioglu has been crowned World Superbike champion before the final round, having won the 2021 title at the final round in Indonesia, and having taken the 2024 title in Jerez.

The points permutations to make Razgatlioglu champion in Estoril Race 2 are below.

• If Razgatlioglu wins, he needs Bulega to finish ninth or lower;

• If Razgatlioglu finishes second, he needs Bulega to finish 14th or lower;

• If Razgatlioglu finishes third or lower, the title battle is guaranteed to move to the final round in Jerez, regardless of where Bulega finishes.

Bulega and Razgatlioglu have filled the top-two positions 25 times this season out of 32 races. Razgatlioglu has won 21 races, and in 18 of those wins the second-placed rider has been Bulega.

Bulega has four non-scores this season to Razgatlioglu's two. 

The BMW rider missed the points in the Australia Superpole Race when he went straight at turn four on the opening lap and went on to finish 13th; he then retired from Race 2 in Australian with a technical problem.

Bulega, on the other hand, retired twice in Assen with technical problems; crashed with Axel Bassani in the Emilia-Romagna Superpole Race in an incident that Bassani was penalised for; and finished only 13th in the Hungary Superpole Race when he chose an intermediate rear tyre, which proved to be the wrong choice.