Where does the smart money lie in Melbourne?

Mercedes’ display through pre-season testing may have left an ominous feeling in some corners about the level of competition we would see through the 2018 Formula 1 season, yet a glimmer of hope appeared to come through during Friday’s practice running in Australia.

While Lewis Hamilton may have romped to the top of the timesheets in both FP1 and FP2, heading up a Mercedes one-two in the first session, Max Verstappen was able to finish just one-tenth of a second behind in the later session for Red Bull.

Hamilton had been quietly talking up Red Bull through pre-season and even ahead of the race weekend in Australia, saying on Thursday: “Daniel [Ricciardo] has been smiling quite a lot, so I think you are going to be surprised this weekend with just how competitive Red Bull are.

“There is a lot of hype around our team which I think is very difficult to take much notice of as the last test was a little distorted with the track the way it was and people on different fuel loads. I am excited to see how we all fare up when we get to practice.”

Friday’s practice running at Albert Park may have attempted to give us a slightly clearer picture, yet we appear to still be quite far off getting any real firm indications of just how tight the front three are.

Various predictions ranging from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull being covered by just a few tenths to a 2004 level of dominance from the German manufacturer have been made in recent days; we may only get a firm picture come qualifying, assuming rain doesn’t skew things further.

The low-fuel runs in FP2 saw Hamilton hit the front on the Ultrasoft tyre, edging out Verstappen, but varied programmes in the longer stints - where Mercedes was predicted to have a definite advantage - make it a little harder to decipher the picture.

On the Ultrasofts, just three-tenths of a second reportedly covered the front five’s average lap times, with Hamilton sitting a few hundredths of a second clear of Verstappen. There were more varied programmes later in the session, with Mercedes and Ferrari splitting their drivers’ programmes to gain data across all three tyre compounds. Renault’s Carlos Sainz Jr. noted a bigger step between the tyres than experienced in Barcelona, making it all the more crucial to pick up the required information ahead of the rest of the race weekend.

Red Bull will certainly take heart from its display on Friday, running Mercedes closer than was perhaps expected earlier in the week. Verstappen didn’t wish to get too overawed by the team’s performance, though, coyly calling his race pace “alright” and “nothing to worry about.” “You know Mercedes are going to be quick,” he added. “I think we still have some things to improve of course, but [I’m] positive.”

Ferrari was there or thereabouts throughout Friday’s running, but Vettel was quick to stress the Italian marque had not yet played all its cards. “I think we still have quite a lot of performance in hand,” he said. "I’m not too worried because I know that if I get everything right then we should be in better shape but it looks to be close which is good news. So we should be able to do something tomorrow.”

Ferrari’s pace on the softer compound tyres was impressive through testing, whereas Mercedes appeared to struggle more when the track was hotter. Yet with cooler - or perhaps even rainy - conditions forecast for Saturday, it could play more in Mercedes’ favour at the front.

I took some time out during FP2 to stand trackside for a bit and observe the cars heading through the fast left-right complex at Turn 11 and Turn 12, offering a good opportunity to draw comparisons.

The Mercedes looked to be in a class of its own. With the exception of Valtteri Bottas’ hairy moment on exit, the W09 Hybrid car looked stable and planted through the corner, all while being noticeably quicker than the rest of the pack. It seemed easy for the drivers to tip the car in and out with fluid control.

Ferrari’s SF71H looked quick also, but the car really had to work to get through the direction change mid-corner. The Red Bull was similar in that regard, but appeared to take a wider line heading into the second half of the complex before going onto the run down to Turn 13.

Haas’ impressive finish in the final timesheets was also reflected when viewing it trackside. The VF-18 looked really stable - more so than the other midfield teams - through the corner, and to see the team finish as high as sixth with Romain Grosjean in the final FP2 standings came as little surprise to most.

“They have been quick through all of pre-season testing and we have kept an eye on them because we saw they were really, really fast straight away,” Sainz said. “Unfortunately they look to be that half a step in front of the rest of the midfield. Hopefully we can recover that soon.”

Pierre Gasly echoed Sainz's thoughts: "Haas is realy impressive. I must say they are really fast. In Barcelona already we could see they had a huge potential, but Grosjean proved it again today. To be fair I think they are a bit out of our reach."

“What is very encouraging is that we’re not too far from the Ferraris, which is a good benchmark for us,” said Grosjean. “But again I think it’s pretty tight behind us as well. So it will be interesting and I think the midfield fight is going to be all year long.”

Teammate Kevin Magnussen also urged caution: “The car is at least working again here - it was in Barcelona, it’s working again here, that’s good. But last year we had some competitive races as well so the inconsistency from last year is what is making us cautious now.”

Big questions marks remain about how the pack will shape up tomorrow. What we do know is that the big three remains and the midfield is looking tighter than ever - but the smart money right now looks to rest on Mercedes and Haas to lead those respective fights.

That said, with rain threatening to affect the next two days of running, we may be left guessing for another two weeks when we get to Bahrain to get a real picture of the pecking order in F1 2018.