Who will win the 2025 F1 world championship? Our verdict

The 2025 F1 drivers’ world championship will be decided in a thrilling three-way showdown at this weekend’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

For the first time since 2010, three or more drivers enter the season finale at the Yas Marina Circuit with a shot of winning F1’s greatest prize of all.

Lando Norris goes into the final round leading Red Bull’s Max Verstappen by 12 points, with McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri 16 points adrift. Here’s a rundown of what all three need to be crowned world champion.

So who will come out on top in the decider in the desert? Our writers have their say…

Odds are in Norris's favour - Connor McDonagh

The odds are heavily stacked in Norris’ favour in Abu Dhabi. His 12-point advantage means just a podium will hand him the title. 

On paper, the Yas Marina Circuit has been one of Norris’ best tracks over the years. In 2020, Norris qualified just 0.2s off Verstappen’s pole time with a stunning effort. Similarly, 12 months later, Norris was third on the grid behind Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.

Let’s not forget last year, when the pressure was on and one mistake would have handed Ferrari the constructors’ title. Norris kept his cool and took a commanding win.

So logically, this weekend should be a strong one for Norris - but it is a title decider. Even if Norris puts it on pole, he will have to see off aggressive attacks from Verstappen or Piastri on the opening lap. 

Throughout his career, Norris’ best work has come when he’s running at the front in clean air. If he’s put on the back foot following a poor start, or if Verstappen’s brute force puts him in the mix with the Mercedes pair or Charles Leclerc, then it will be a very nervy afternoon - even if McLaren have a dominant car like in Qatar.

Norris’ track record in Abu Dhabi and the buffer he has over his rivals should mean he becomes McLaren’s first world champion since Hamilton in 2008.

Verstappen to seal F1's greatest comeback - Lewis Larkam

Norris has the points advantage, but Verstappen has won five of the eight races before Abu Dhabi and has a much simpler dynamic than the one facing McLaren, who inadvertently handed victory to their main rival by fluffing their lines last time out with an embarrassing own goal at a track they had the faster car.

While his recent form has been mightily impressive, Norris has shown that he is far from bulletproof this year, with key mistakes earlier in the season. Even in Qatar, when things looked straightforward to claim ‘match point’ in the title race at the first attempt, Norris blew it with a scrappy weekend.

Verstappen, on the other hand, has pretty much been flawless. His head loss when he drove into George Russell’s Mercedes at the Spanish Grand Prix is the only real blemish in an otherwise outstanding campaign. With the margins so fine, that could of course end up being a defining moment Verstappen looks back on with regret.

But the fact Verstappen is even in the hunt, having been 104 points adrift just nine rounds ago, is testament to his ruthless tenacity, remarkable consistency and sheer brilliance. The Dutchman has been here and done this before (four times) and out of the three title contenders, he is the only one who proved he can deliver when the title is on the line. What’s more, Red Bull are fully in his corner and will do absolutely everything to make it possible.

Realistically, winning this year’s world championship feels both unthinkable and improbable, but if anyone can do it, Verstappen can. Such a feat would go down as his greatest achievement to date and truly cement his status among the pantheon of F1 greats.