Finger pointed at under-fire MotoGP rider likely to be replaced in 2026

Every summer, the dreaded question about which MotoGP rider will be axed from the grid arises.

Contracts are negotiated around this time of year for the following season which means several under-performing riders will be nervous about what’s to come.

Officially, the current riders without a deal for 2026 are Luca Marini, Franco Morbidelli and Jack Miller.

But we know that contracts can involve clauses and teams have ways of replacing riders if they are desperate to do so.

With a host of talented Moto2 riders keen for a promotion, and with Toprak Razgatlioglu incoming at Pramac Yamaha, which current rider is undeserving of a place in the 2026 MotoGP rider line-up?

The Crash.net experts pick one name who is likeliest to be replaced…

'Unjustifiable' for Yamaha to retain faith

Lewis Duncan: For someone with race winning pedigree, Miguel Oliveira has quickly proven his place on the MotoGP grid for next year to be unjustifiable.

The Portuguese race scored five victories while at KTM, before a switch to Aprilia machinery in 2023 failed to yield much in the way of similar results.

While he has had his injury troubles in recent years, his two-year deal with Yamaha to race for Pramac from this season was already largely unwarranted over team-mate Jack Miller’s single-campaign contract.

And when fully fit, Oliveira hasn’t been able to hold much of a light to Miller. With one Pramac seat already gone to double World Superbike champion Toprak Razgatlioglu, Miller and Oliveira are debating the final one.

With no top 10s to his credit this year, and with injury continuing to be an issue, Yamaha needs someone more dependable to help carry on bike development. And so far, Oliveira hasn’t proven to be what it needs.

Peter McLaren: The two names at the bottom of the world championship table are Miguel Oliveira (6 points) and Somkiat Chantra (1 point). Both have mitigating circumstances: Oliveira missing several rounds due to injury, Chantra being on one of the toughest bikes for a rookie and now also injured. 

There’s a question mark hanging over both of their MotoGP futures, with Razgatlioglu confirmed at Pramac and proven MotoGP riders (plus some Moto2 stars) being linked with Chantra’s ride at LCR.

Alex Whitworth: There aren’t a lot of contenders for this one – almost everyone has had their flashes this year, even Enea Bastianini was on the podium at Brno on a KTM he hasn’t been able to stop all season.

But Miguel Oliveira has been quite average all year, and when you consider the riders who could replace him – Diogo Moreira, Manuel Gonzalez, for example – it becomes tougher to justify the 30-year-old in 2026.

'Sentiment does not guarantee results'

Derry Munikartono: Regrettably, that would be Somkiat Chantra at LCR Honda.

His promotion to MotoGP was historic and symbolic, backed by Idemitsu’s vision to nurture Asian talent, he became the first Thai rider in the premier class. But sentiment alone doesn’t guarantee results.

Unfortunately, Chantra’s rookie campaign has been marked by persistent struggles. He’s consistently lingered at the back of the grid and has scored points just once all season—with a lone 15th-place finish at Assen. His lack of experience and difficulty adapting to the notoriously challenging Honda RC213V have been clear for all to see.

While his seat is technically protected by Idemitsu’s sponsorship of the second LCR bike, even that support is under scrutiny as Honda looks toward 2026.

Paddock sources suggest the factory is eyeing rising Brazilian Moto2 star Diogo Moreira as a more competitive option.

LCR team boss Lucio Cecchinello has already confirmed that discussions with Honda regarding the future of the second seat will take place during the upcoming Suzuka 8 Hours. Unless Chantra can turn things around dramatically in the second half of the season, his MotoGP journey may be short-lived.

Jordan Moreland: Miguel Oliveira hasn't delivered for a few years now in MotoGP, either on the Aprilia or the Yamaha. 

Yes, very unlucky with injury and getting caught up in incidents. But he should be scoring points and top tens regularly, given the calibre of rider he is. He is 25th in the standings with just six points; it simply isn't good enough.