How the F1 form guide shifted ahead of the summer break

To properly judge the gradual shifting of form, we have divided the season into two equal sections. “But how?” I hear you ask. “There have been 11 races, so that doesn’t quite work.”

And you would be correct in that thinking. What we have done is to divide the season using the first five rounds, and the most recent five rounds. Rather conveniently, this means that the race removed from the equation is the highly controversial Monaco Grand Prix, which saw the result skewed significantly by a multitude of penalties for pit lane speeding, producing a result that was so far removed from any true form, that it should never be regarded in this conversation anyway. 

Yes, this means Pierre Gasly’s impressive podium result does not feature, and neither does Fernando Alonso’s sole point, but we don’t make the rules…or maybe we do!

The first five races – Mercedes dominates

Mercedes was an unstoppable force across the opening five races of the season. With four wins for Kimi Antonelli and one for George Russell, the Silver Arrows amassed a stunning 219 points across the period, with Ferrari next best on 147.

In the drivers’ battle, this level of early success saw Antonelli take a 43-point lead over his team-mate. Given the Italian’s winning form and the size of this early lead, there were some less than subtle paddock murmurings that the title may already be decided.

The fact that Russell was just 13 points clear of the rather underwhelming Ferrari of Charles Leclerc, who was in turn three points ahead of Lewis Hamilton, only added to this feeling. 

Such was his dominance, that Antonelli wrapped up a staggering 87.9% of points on offer. Not a bad return. Nor was Mercedes’ 84.2% haul. If this isn’t championship-winning form, then we really don’t know what is. 

Some way behind the lead pair were McLaren and Red Bull, and although it is McLaren that has taken a win out of these two teams, just keep the latter outfit in mind when we reach the more recent form.

In the midfield, it was Alpine that led the way. With 35 points and a pair of sixth-place finishes, one each for Franco Colapinto and Gasly, the French manufacturer was 14 more points than nearest challenger Racing Bulls.

Indeed, Racing Bulls was more concerned with Haas, who were just two points behind and had made a strong start to the new era.

The most recent five races – Ferrari strikes back

Since Monaco, there has been a new sheriff in town – or rather, an old guard. 

The recent races take in races in Barcelona, Austria, Great Britain, Belgium, and Hungary, and had the season begun at this stage, Hamilton and Ferrari would be at the summit. Such has been Antonelli’s drop in form, that he would be in fifth place – level on points with Leclerc, but behind on countback of second place finishes. 

What is most surprising about this turnaround is that although there have been no repeat winners in this period – Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, Antonelli, and Lando Norris all taking one apiece – the seven-time champion has scored a grand total of 79 points, an increase of just seven from the earlier period. 

Instead, his gains have come from two primary sources; firstly, the reliability problems that have increasingly struck Mercedes, and secondly, the natural convergence of the field. This Ferrari form would show in the constructors’ too, with the Scuderia outscoring Mercedes by seven points.

McLaren, surprisingly, are two points worse off for the period in third place, but Red Bull has added massively to its haul. This is not through Verstappen who improved by 13 points, but the gain was largely through a marked improvement in Isack Hadjar’s form. 

Having scored just 14 points in the earlier period, the Frenchman has registered 42 points in the more recent events, positioning him just one place behind his championship-winning team-mate in the form guide.

The other biggest winner across recent weekends is Racing Bulls. The midfield has become less of a battle of late, with Alpine dropping away scoring only 11 points to the 31 of Racing Bulls, with both Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad moving into the top 10 on form.

The biggest loser, however, is Haas. With zero points scored and developments coming at a slower rate than any other team, things are not looking good. The only plus point here is that with the points becoming far more of a closed shop, it is unlikely that Williams, Audi, or Cadillac will better them. Of these teams, only Audi has any points to its name from these weekends. 

Aston Martin, however, could prove to be a threat. Given the upgrades both recently installed and in the pipeline, while it is possible only to say that the team was woeful prior to the Hungarian weekend, it is impossible to rank this particular team on form. 

Bold predictions – What does the form tell us?

It’s time to tentatively stick our necks on the line.

While Mercedes appears to have been reigned in, the competitive nature of the top three, possibly the top four if Red Bull can unlock some extra pace, means that these teams will be taking points off each other across most weekends. Due to this, the loss suffered if or when Mercedes have a difficult race will be lessened.

But in the drivers’, Hamilton cannot be ignored. Yes, he is 50 points back in real terms, but he has Antonelli in his sights, and that must be a very frightening place for the young Mercedes driver to be.

In reality though, it would be some comeback should Hamilton pull this off, so Antonelli remains the hot favourite – not something you will catch Toto Wolff saying – despite his somewhat patchy form.

Barring a crazy swing in performance, Racing Bulls will likely end the year in fifth place, but Alpine will have at least one eye on Aston Martin in Zandvoort. It could be that they are the teams battling for sixth place come the end of the year.