The flaws in the latest Toprak Razgatlioglu MotoGP links

There is something about springtime in the MotoGP rider market rumour mill. As soon as the trees start to blossom as the warmer weather filters through the northern hemisphere, so too seemingly does the now-annual talks of Toprak Razgatlioglu being linked to a MotoGP seat.

The Superbike stud has talent coming out of his eyeballs on production machinery. Arguably, he is the best Superbike rider we’ve seen this century. He ended Jonathan Rea’s lengthy World Superbike reign in 2021 on the Yamaha, then made the bold move to an unfancied BMW package in 2024, on which he utterly dominated for his second crown.

While initially throwing his toys out of the pram at the start of 2025 over World Superbike’s rule changes hitting BMW harder than rival Ducati, he has been able to win four races and keep Nicolo Bulega within reach in the standings.

But all of this is now something of a subplot, at least for the next few weeks, as once more rumours of Razgatlioglu eyeing a move to MotoGP have come into effect.

Toprak Razgatlioglu linked to MotoGP move

His very chatty manager Kenan Sofuoglu has been telling GPOne: “In the last two weeks we have been trying to figure out how to make this move concrete. We have found a solution but we cannot announce it yet, because at the moment we are discussing and evaluating everything in detail.”

Sofuoglu is a great manager. Ultimately, his job is to generate PR for his rider. Assume what he says isn’t actually rooted in much truth, the hype generated around it will get BMW to work harder to stump up a suitable new deal for him for 2026 and possibly beyond.

This is something very important to remember when silly season comes around: managers are looking for any which way to make their clients appear in high demand.

The latest rumour for Razgatlioglu is that he could sign with Honda for the 2026 season in WSBK to then help develop the 2027 MotoGP bike for when the championship switches to Pirelli rubber - something the Turkish rider is very familiar with. In theory, there could also be the chance of wildcards.

The holes in the Honda rumour

Sofuoglu’s interview with GPOne makes it clear that Yamaha is an interested party, as is Honda.

But there is something of a stumbling block there straight out the gate: Sofuoglu has also said that if Razgatlioglu is to remain in WSBK, it will be with BMW. He insists the project matters more than the money in WSBK, and both parties are happy with each other if they can keep things moving in the right direction.

If the idea is that Honda wants Razgatlioglu on its books next year with a view to develop the 2027 MotoGP bike on Pirellis ahead of a step up, that doesn’t seem to be what his camp is thinking.

As far as space on the 2026 grid goes, there isn’t much. Circling back to Yamaha, it does have a seat out of contract - Jack Miller’s. But the Australian has done a fine job so far on the M1, and is well-liked by the Pramac organisation. Miller is two years older than Razgatlioglu at 30, but he has invaluable experience that pretty much negates any perceived differences in career longevity.

Honda does have places, at both its factory team and LCR. Johann Zarco and Luca Marini are out of sync with the rest of the factory deals. But the former sits sixth in the standings right now after a strong start to 2025, while Marini’s methodical approach sees him second-best Honda in 10th right now. Both want term with HRC and are doing a decent enough job of earning it.

The complication with Honda’s seats right now is Pedro Acosta. The double world champion and generational talent in the making has had a frustrating start to the 2025 campaign on the factory KTM. The bike, aside from Maverick Vinales’ surprise breakout in Qatar, has not looked capable of fighting for race wins so far.

Acosta, 11th in the points and a best of eighth at the same stage he’d had two grands prix podiums in 2024, is getting frustrated and rumours of an early KTM exit continue to gather steam. VR46 Ducati is the most persistent, but the factory Honda squad seems like the most likely given its financial might and the inroads it has made so far with its bike.

At 20 years old, Honda could find itself - in essence - in a similar situation to what it had with Marc Marquez: a HRC lifer if they wanted it, providing the project remains competitive. Acosta has to be the priority for HRC over Razgatlioglu, and frankly keeping Zarco should be too. In a developing project, you need some continuity and Zarco’s development prowess has been highly visible.

Assume the current Razgatlioglu to Honda rumour is the most likely outcome, regardless of what Sofuoglu says, there are a few more things to factor in.

The first is the 2027 rider market. Most deals are up for renewal at the end of 2026, and that includes some top firepower as well as a couple of rookies already shining. Acosta should be Honda’s first pick, but beyond that it has the possibility of pairing him with someone pretty considerable.

Perhaps Ai Ogura may finally feel ready to join Honda in MotoGP in 2027, encouraged by the progress it has made. Maybe someone like Pecco Bagnaia looks for a new challenge. Or, playing devil’s advocate, why not a rekindling of the Marc Marquez/Honda relationship to see out the final few years of his career on a bike he can actually win on? That’s not taking into account the exciting crop coming through Moto2 and Moto3.

With all that said, why would a 30-year-old lifelong production bike racer - even if he is Toprak Razgatlioglu - be of greater value than any of those options?

Previous Razgatlioglu MotoGP outings disappointed

One of the key things in the Honda rumour is Razgatlioglu being able to help HRC develop a bike around Pirelli tyres. They won’t be the same as the ones used in WSBK, but the fundamental DNA will be there.

On paper, that does seem like a pretty sensible idea. Razgatlioglu's ability to use the Pirelli front tyre to feel the absolute limits of braking few can is a spectacular strength and would be something he could transfer to a MotoGP bike. But, if we make a loose current comparison, that’s not necessarily going to pan out. Reigning World Supersport champion Adrian Huertas has come to Moto2 this year on Pirellis and has scored just two points so far, with a best of 16th in qualifying. Moto2 bikes are hard to get on with, it’s worth noting, but tyre familiarity won’t necessarily give you an immediate advantage.

Making another loose comparison, Valentino Rossi said in 2016 after winning the Spanish GP that he “grew up on” Michelin tyres, which helped him to that victory given his prior knowledge of the brand’s rubber. But he would only win twice more on that rubber, while his experience didn’t stop Yamaha from entering into a phase of frustrating inconsistency that would see it not win a championship again until 2021.

For Honda - and any manufacturer, for that matter - to really gain anything out of Razgatlioglu’s Pirelli expertise, he would need an extensive testing programme first. The possibility of that will be determined by where a brand sits in the concession rankings. Honda is a category D brand right now, can test freely and with more tyres. But should its results necessitate a change in ranking, it will have less tyres and less circuits to test on during a season.

That said, Razgatlioglu rides the Pirelli front like nobody else does in WSBK. That has been a problem for his BMW stablemates, and would almost certainly be an issue for Honda in 2027. Honda knows all to well what can happen when a bike is designed specifically around one alien riding style from the Marquez years.

The fundamental issue, however, is that Razgatlioglu simply hasn’t shown enough yet on a MotoGP bike to suggest he is competitive enough for the job. He had a curtailed first test on a Yamaha at Aragon in 2022, and later that year then-team boss Lin Jarvis admitted regret in not signing him for the factory MotoGP team for 2023.

Razgatlioglu then got two days of testing at Jerez in 2023, which was attended by Yamaha top brass. He was around 0.7s slower than test rider Cal Crutchlow and 1.4s down on KTM tester Dani Pedrosa.

The Turkish rider has since claimed Yamaha did nothing to make him more comfortable on the bike and he even considered not completing the second day. Whatever happened, Yamaha wasn’t convinced enough to take a punt on him for 2024 and didn't revisit it for 2025 despite it ultimately having two extra bikes on which to place him. 

MotoGP bikes will be less complicated in 2027 under the new 850cc regulations, with rider height devices banned and aero stripped back. But they will still take a lot to adjust to for a rider. The current Honda rumour has Razgatlioglu trying to adapt to a MotoGP bike while also developing a new one, which is a tough spot for any rider to be in.

To boot, Honda is already starting to have ambitions about what it can achieve. And by 2027, it will be looking to be an all-out title fighter again. It's hard to see that being with Razgatlioglu, certainly not against the calibre of grid MotoGP has currently and which is only likely to get even stronger in two years.

Unquestionably, Razgatlioglu is a phenomenal talent. A move to MotoGP arguably should have come to him sooner. If it happens in the next two years, he will be a popular addition to the grid. But maybe it’s time to accept that his calling is in WSBK and that he needs MotoGP more than it needs him…