Catalan MotoGP practice pace suggests Marc Marquez may get his title wish

The green of the leaves have barely begun to fade and already, in early September, we stand on the precipice of the 2025 MotoGP world championship being decided. For all intents and purposes, the book is sealed on the title. Marc Marquez has done all of the hard yards to do everything but guarantee it mathematically.

That shot could well come in just over a week’s time when the paddock swaps the industrial surrounds of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the picturesque Misano coastline at the San Marino Grand Prix.

Marc Marquez, as of Friday evening on 5 September, leads the 2025 standings by 175 points. Should he hold an advantage of at least 185 points over Alex Marquez at the end of the Catalan Grand Prix, then he can be crowned world champion at Misano if all of the cards fall his way.

It’s not overstating it, then, to suggest the sprint and grand prix at Barcelona are the most important races of the season.

The Misano coronation possibility has been on the table for some time. But Marc Marquez has repeatedly brushed it aside. After the Hungarian Grand Prix, his seventh 37-point weekend of the year and 10th main race victory, he said he wanted his championship to be awarded in either Japan or Indonesia because of what it would mean for his younger brother if it happened at Misano.

He repeated that on Thursday in Spain: “I wish to have the match point as soon as possible, but I wish to have it in Japan or Indonesia because if I have it in Misano, it means my brother had a disaster weekend here in Catalunya. If I keep focused, it's a matter of time. But for this, I prefer a good weekend for my brother than the 'match ball' in Misano.”

Alex Marquez’s recent form has left a lot to be desired. He suffered a double non-score at Brno, while a Joan Mir collision left him with a long lap penalty for Austria. He was on the podium in the sprint in Spielberg but only 10th in the grand prix. He got a grid penalty in Hungary for impeding, could do no more than eighth in the sprint and was 14th in the grand prix after a crash.

“We need to flow and we can’t make mistakes in the key moments of the weekend,” he told the official MotoGP website after ending Friday at Barcelona third. “I think this is the thing that we did in the last weekends and we put everything in the rubbish a little bit.”

Barcelona is a circuit Marc Marquez considers to be a weak one. For Alex Marquez, it’s one where he instantly clicked with the GP24 last November in the post-season test. If there was a weekend to stop the skid he’s in, it’s this one.

Delaying his elder brother’s coronation is, ultimately, a futile exercise. But that isn’t fundamentally the point. At one stage in 2025, Alex Marquez was his brother’s closest challenger. At the very least, he needs to get back to those ways and show that he can keep Marc Marquez on his toes next year.

Marc Marquez closer than expected, but threats are plentiful at bogey circuit

After 14 rounds of the campaign, Marc Marquez really hasn’t been tripped up very much. He did himself out of a sure fire win while leading at COTA, while impatience at Jerez contributed to a needless crash that opened the door for Alex Marquez to take his first victory.

He was lucky with the timing of a red flag at Silverstone. But, if we’re to pick a comparable ‘weak’ venue for the eight-time world champion, Barcelona and Silverstone aren’t too dissimilar. Both are fast right-handed circuits where success has been limited. At Barcelona, Marquez has won just twice in the last 12 years.

But at Silverstone, he was second in the sprint and third in the grand prix. So, when Marquez talks about lowering expectations for a circuit he isn’t fond of - even with his admission on Thursday that he has to work harder on fast right-handed tracks due to his 2020 humerus injury - the worst case is still bottom step of the podium.

In a rarity of recent times, he didn’t top any session on Friday. That honour went to KTM (more on the Austrian contingent later). At the end of Practice, Marquez was fourth, second-best of the Ducatis and about 0.224s off the pace set by Brad Binder.

Not that this is has been an issue. He was off the front row at Silverstone, Assen and Red Bull Ring, and was on the podium in both - in the latter two, he won both races. Pace-wise, he was a lot stronger than even he expected.

“The fastest in terms of pace is Alex, but for Montmelo it wasn’t bad,” he told the media on Friday.

Indeed, as you can see in the above table, Alex Marquez was slightly faster than his elder brother at an average pace of 1m39.824s versus 1m39.924s. Both Ducati riders were faster than the two leading KTMs on the timesheets.

Both Marquez brothers did their work on medium rubber, with Alex Marquez going slightly longer in terms of stint length and the overall age of the tyre. Intriguingly, Alex Marquez also looked like he had a little more late-race pace than what Marc Marquez has been famed for this year. The Gresini rider did a 1m39.990s on the penultimate lap of our sample, while Marc Marquez was in the low 1m40s.

Given Marc Marquez’s misgivings about Barcelona, there is an argument to be had that this should be a concern for the rest as there is clear gains to be made. And that is something he has been good at since he jumped on the Ducati last year.

But, Alex Marquez was fast without being all that happy with what his bike was able to do.

“Still there are some problems there to fix, especially on the front part of the bike, which is not turning as I want on the fast corners,” he said. “So, it’s something that I’m happy because still we have some margin to improve and this is something really positive.”

The fact his GP24 isn’t turning in the fast corners right now is reason to inspire confidence in Alex Marquez. In the final sector of the lap, which features the fast downhill rights of Turns 13 and 14 (as well as the long radius left of Turn 10) he was second overall and just over a tenth clear of his older brother.

If Alex Marquez can continue what he started on Friday, then there is almost no excuse for him not to go all the way through to the grand prix as the favourite.

KTM confirming updated bike is a competitive package

While it wasn’t a surprise to see Pedro Acosta at the sharp end of proceedings across Friday’s action, it was a bit unusual that Brad Binder was the one to see out the day fastest of all.

That is no slight against the double MotoGP winner, but his one lap speed in 2025 has left a lot to be desired. He has a best of sixth on the grid this year, but has only seen Q2 five times (including this weekend).

Race speed has often not been an issue for the South African, but hoisting himself up the grid to better starting positions is what he needs to really reap the rewards of his pace.

Binder explained on Friday that the updates brought to the RC16 in Austria coupled with a change in approach to how he tackles time attacks was the key to his speed on Friday. Alex Marquez says he wasn’t surprised that KTM was fast, but was taken aback by just how much.

“I mean, I was expecting that - but not as fast as they are,” he said. “Especially it looks like all the KTMs. I remember in the times when it was Pol [Espargaro] or Miguel [Oliveira], at the tracks where it was quite low-grip they were able to be really fast.” KTM’s last dry weather win came at Barcelona in 2021 with Oliveira.

Three of the four KTMs made it into Q2, with only Maverick Vinales the outlier. But that’s not really a comment on what his potential is. This is his first round back since Austria and he is still feeling the effects from the shoulder he injured in Germany back in July.

Acosta, Binder and Enea Bastianini -  who did crash at the end of PR - all did their race running on soft rubber. Bastianini was the quicker of the three, at an average pace of 1m39.920s on a tyre that had 15 laps on it by the end. Only Alex Marquez was faster.

With Barcelona always a tyre race, Bastianini’s conservation of his rear rubber is something that could spur him onto a victory on Sunday. If he can hook up qualifying, and he has been doing that of late, he’s at the moment the biggest threat from the KTM stable - though not by much.

Acosta reckons this turn of pace from the KTM can be attributed in part to other manufacturers struggling more when grip conditions are low, as they always are at Barcelona.

“I’m quite happy how the bike is working,” he said. “It’s [not doing] anything special, but maybe the others brands suffer a bit more and we maintain our level. Maybe it can be this. Remember how fast Brad was in both races last year. I was quite competitive in the first one. For this, we have to just not think so much about the result, have fun and keep working.”

Podiums in two of the last three grands prix is proof that a first win of the season is not far away for KTM. The Ducatis, right now, still have a small advantage. And a direct Q2 appearance for Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi keeps him the threat he has been for some time, even if his race pace on Friday isn’t quite as strong as it could be.

But Barcelona looks, so far, like the most significant proof of a KTM resurgence.

Bagnaia’s hope quickly turned to hopelessness on Friday in Barcelona

There was a very big part of me that thought when I came to write this analysis of practice at the Catalan Grand Prix that we’d be looking at a genuine victory challenge from Pecco Bagnaia.

His Hungarian Grand Prix really couldn’t have gone much worse, but Sunday yielded what looked to be a significant set-up turnaround that filled him with confidence coming to a circuit he won at twice last year.

But he ends Friday despondent having not even lifted himself out of the top 20 in either session.

Bagnaia’s FP1 wasn’t helped by a technical issue with one of his bikes in FP1. But the Hungary set-up made no difference. “Even worse”, in fact, was how he described it, adding: “I don't know what to say anymore, honestly, because in the end it's always the same story. Honestly, I'm really on the limit, we don't know where to go.”

The double world champion has been frustrated at points, while at times also accepting of his own part to play in this funk. But today seemed like it was as low as he could get. And now the question arises as to where does he go from here?

He is not hopeful of a turnaround on Saturday. He doesn’t even have race pace that offers much encouragement, with a run on the medium rear working out at an average of 1m40.228s relative to 1m39.942s for team-mate Marc Marquez. Bagnaia wasn’t the only GP25 struggling. Fabio Di Giannantonio was 17th.

But there is no scenario where Di Giannantonio should be a reference for a rider of Bagnaia’s calibre. And Ducati boss Davide Tardozzi clearly recognises this. He told Sky Italy after FP1: “We expect Pecco to do his part to solve these problems. He must help us help him: we need him to focus more on overcoming the difficulties, to think more about the rider he is and how good he is.”

In simple terms: Ducati doesn’t have much more it can offer by way of the bike and it needs Bagnaia to push through the problems with his talent. That’s easier said than done. And it also seems like an impossibility now at this stage of 2025 given the mental battering this situation has exacted on Bagnaia.

Bagnaia leading home Marquez in November to win the Solidarity Grand Prix - his 11th victory of the campaign - and narrowly miss out on a third premier class title seems so far away now on Friday 5 September 2025…