Four big rider market questions caused by Toprak Razgatlioglu joining MotoGP

The rider market for 2026 contracts has kicked into another gear.

The confirmation that Toprak Razgatlioglu has signed for Pramac Yamaha next year has provoked some serious questions about what comes next.

The BMW rider will swap the World Superbike Championship for MotoGP meaning big manufacturers in both paddocks have got some decisions to make for their rider line-ups.

Here are the key questions caused by Toprak Razgatlioglu joining MotoGP...

Do Pramac axe Jack Miller or Miguel Oliveira?

Razgatlioglu’s move to Pramac means that only one of Jack Miller and Miguel Oliveira can stay.

Oliveira has the contract for 2026, but Miller’s results have been better in 2025.

The Australian’s contract expires at the end of the year, though, which perhaps makes it a difficult decision for the Japanese factory to make.

Perhaps, in the end, Pramac will drop both riders and take a young talent from Moto2 – Aron Canet or Manuel Gonzalez, perhaps. The Italian squad, after all, has experience in bringin on young talent.

It was through Pramac that Francesco Bagnaia and Jack Miller passed to get to the factory Ducati team in 2021. In 2019, Danilo Petrucci advanced in the same way.

There is a reason why Yamaha picked Pramac to be its official satellite team in MotoGP, and why that collaboration also included a rebrand of Yamaha’s Moto2 team under the Pramac name; and it’s also true that neither 30-year-old Oliveira nor 30-year-old Miller fit into the ‘young rider’ categorisation any longer.

What do Honda do? Toprak no longer an option

Honda, having been reportedly looking into the possibility of bringing Razgatlioglu to MotoGP in 2027 after a year in its WorldSBK team, no longer have that possibility open to them.

Had everything gone to plan and we imagine things idyllically, it could’ve been a double-win for HRC, who might’ve got a WorldSBK title, Suzuka 8 Hours win, and MotoGP success out of Razgatlioglu.

But now they must find an alternative to both their MotoGP and World Superbike struggles.

In MotoGP, this could be Jorge Martin, assuming the Spaniard can get out of the second year of his Aprilia contract.

It could also be Pedro Acosta, should HRC be able to make itself seem more attractive than VR46 Ducati, and should Acosta decide to get out of his KTM contract early.

In WorldSBK, a different solution would be required. Honda can’t sign Nicolo Bulega, Andrea Locatelli is locked down at Yamaha, and both factory Bimota riders have recently renewed with the Kawasaki-powered Italian brand.

Honda has also already been through the Alvaro Bautista experience with disappointing results and, in reality, none of those riders mentioned would be likely to bring the kind of instant results that Razgatlioglu might’ve been able to achieve on the CBR1000RR-R.

Perhaps Honda moves Luca Marini to its WorldSBK team, perhaps it continues again with the Xavi Vierge-Iker Lecuona partnership, maybe it out-bids Yamaha for WorldSSP points leader Stefano Manzi, or maybe it takes a punt on Andrea Iannone.

What do BMW do?

BMW’s situation is now perhaps the most curious.

In Razgatlioglu, they are not only losing a World Superbike Champion, but their only World Superbike Champion. Further, Razgatlioglu is the only rider to have scored a podium on the M1000 RR this season, and the only rider to have won a WorldSBK race in the dry on a BMW since it re-entered as a factory team in 2019.

The obvious answer would be to sign WorldSBK’s other dominant force, Nicolo Bulega, but only hours before Razgatlioglu’s move to Yamaha was announced the Italian confirmed his own renewal with Ducati.

On the other hand, current rumours suggest that Alvaro Bautista could be on the market for next year, Ducati deciding to not exercise the second year in the Spaniard’s current contract with it.

But Bautista will be 41-years-old next year, and the last time he rode an inline-four he spent two years winless at Honda.

BMW were reportedly also courting Andrea Locatelli earlier this year, but the Italian recently renewed with Yamaha.

Locatelli’s teammate, though, Jonathan Rea, is still open for 2026. Perhaps the Northern Irish rider, who in general has struggled since moving to Yamaha last year, could be a good replacement for Razgatlioglu.

Other options could be present in MotoGP. Luca Marini is out of contract at HRC this year, and his analytical approach could be the perfect one for BMW as it looks to make its M1000 RR a more consistent performer. 

But Marini is likely to be in demand at other MotoGP factories next year even if HRC lets him go; and, in any case, the positioning of Marini on the Suzuka 8 Hours team (even if Marini’s injuries sustained in the recent test at Suzuka mean he won’t be able to take part in the race) is a sign of Honda’s belief in the Italian’s qualities.

What is clear is that, whoever BMW sign to replace Razgatlioglu, they are unlikely to be able to provide the same kind of immediate impact that the reigning WorldSBK Champion made last year.

Which Moto2 riders could be blocked from  MotoGP by Razgatlioglu’s move?

The addition of a WorldSBK rider into the MotoGP rider market causes complications for front-running Moto2 riders, who typically have the pick of the available MotoGP rides in any given ‘silly season’.

Even without the injection of Razgatlioglu into the mix this year, there weren’t a lot of Moto2 riders who seemed primed to make the step up.

But for the likes of Manuel Gonzalez, who made his MotoGP test debut at Aragon on Monday in place of the injured Ai Ogura, Razgatlioglu’s arrival means the closure of one possible door into MotoGP.

It’s not just that Gonzalez is the current Moto2 points leader, but also the smoothness of his riding style that makes him a strong candidate for a MotoGP promotion.

Small, precise movements and smooth inputs make Gonzalez sound like the opposite rider to Razgatlioglu, but those are the kind of qualities that also sound like the perfect recipe for taking care of tyres over the course of a 40-minute race.

Only time will tell if Gonzalez will step up to MotoGP for 2026, and for now he still has a Moto2 title to win, but – no doubt – Razgatlioglu’s Pramac move makes it harder for the young Spaniard to find a MotoGP seat for next season.