What Mugello MotoGP practice pace predicts for Marc Marquez’s Italian GP return

The 2026 Italian Grand Prix can be viewed as very much the real start to Marc Marquez’s MotoGP season. Fresh from surgery on to remove damaged metalwork that had been scraping his radial nerve since last October’s crash at the Indonesian Grand Prix, the Ducati rider will begin to point himself in the right direction at Mugello.

But, as is typical when the seven-time world champion is involved, his outlook is at total odds with the expectations of those looking on. On Thursday at Mugello, many of his rivals sounded out caution about removing him from the title picture.

Indeed, despite missing Sunday at the French Grand Prix and all of the Catalan Grand Prix, he is only 85 points down on Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi. Given the form the Italian has been in for most of this season, that gap could well have been north of 100 had the Barcelona weekend fallen in a different direction.

Now, 85 points is a big gap still. But with only six rounds of 22 in the books and 37 points on offer per weekend, that is not a deficit that rules you out of the picture anymore… well, not if you’re Marc Marquez, anyway.

Understandably, many will point towards Pecco Bagnaia’s 91-point overhaul to win the title in 2022 after the midway point of that campaign. It’s a pertinent example, but one that’s not quite equatable to the position Marquez finds himself in now, largely because the Aprilia is not a motorcycle falling down the competitive order.

Far from it, in fact, though the Barcelona weekend proved that it’s not indestructible, nor is it impervious to the challenges of intra-manufacturer rivalry.

The current Ducati package, too, isn’t the brand’s strongest. But it does come to its home territory off of the back of a victory for Fabio Di Giannantonio at Barcelona. And after Friday’s practice sessions at Mugello, Di Giannantonio led Pecco Bagnaia for a Ducati 1-2. At least for now, Ducati looks in a good place at the Italian Grand Prix.

So, where does that leave Marquez?

Marquez is well off the pace… but that doesn’t matter to him

Coming into the Mugello weekend, Marquez was open about where his mind was at. Aprilia’s collapse at Barcelona has very much kept him in play in the championship, even with such a deficit to climb.

By being at Mugello, he is in a position to potentially reduce that or, at the very least, stop it from swelling massively.

“I don’t care,” he said, when asked on Friday if the sprint would be harder or easier for him than the grand prix. “If it’s more intense, I will reduce my speed. So, I don’t care, and I’m very honest, because I would like to say, ‘Yeah, I want to take maximum points to try to be there in the championship’. But, at the moment, I’m here to try to rebuild my right arm to continue my future. I don’t have another target.”

There is probably a good degree of truth in what he says. By all accounts, he has penned a two-year extension with Ducati, after all. But it’s hard to consider Marquez returning so soon from shoulder surgery, to a track that will brutalise his right arm more than most, if he doesn’t at least harbour some belief that he is capable of still fighting for the 2026 title.

That said, the Mugello weekend, at least based on Friday practice pace analysis, isn’t shaping up to be one where he can fight for the podium.

Based on a six-lap run on the soft rear tyre, Marquez was almost 0.9s per lap slower than Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi, and about half a second away from the leading Ducati (Di Giannantonio) in terms of race pace.

Marquez noted after Friday’s running that he is expecting to be “worse, worse and worse” physically as the weekend goes on. Today was about finding out how his nerve would react on the bike. Thankfully, there was no issue, though now that it is back to normal, he is using muscles that haven’t been activated in a while.

One thing that wasn’t gone from his arsenal when he was struggling in the early rounds was his one-lap speed. And that also remains. He was sixth in the twice-red-flagged Practice at Mugello, 0.202s from pacesetter Fabio Di Giannantonio. He was still fifth out of the six Ducatis on the grid, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t just a little bit more in the tank when crunch time comes in Q2 on Saturday morning.

Writing Marquez off is always a risky business. A podium would be a dream outcome, but at present, holding onto the top eight will be a considerable result.

Aprilia versus Ducati on home soil

Ducati’s Davide Tardozzi remarked to Speedweek on the build-up to the Italian Grand Prix that MotoGP’s popularity in Italy has taken a knock in the wake of Valentino Rossi’s retirement. It’s a sad comment to digest when you consider the job Ducati has done this decade, while Aprilia has now stepped up to the plate. Italian engineering is very much at the forefront in MotoGP now.

Based on practice pace, a real dogfight between the brands is on the cards, though it looks like one Aprilia has the advantage in.

Championship leader Marco Bezzecchi emerges as the fastest on race pace on medium rubber, albeit on a fresh tyre across a six-lap representative stint. On an eight-lap-old soft rear, Bezzecchi registered a 1m46.2s. Pecco Bagnaia, by contrast, did a 1m46.861s, while Di Giannantonio managed a 1m46.824s.

Bagnaia had a low-speed fall in the Turn 1 gravel in FP1, but was overall much happier with his feeling on the GP26 compared to last year. He can “let the bike turn more” on the front-end this time around, though admits the bike was a little bit more unstable.

Di Giannantonio was unwell on Friday, and is also still suffering from a finger injury he picked up in the Alex Marquez/Pedro Acosta crash at Barcelona. But he was “really happy” with his feeling on the Ducati today.

For Di Giannantonio, he feels he is just missing laps to really understand the potential of his package at Mugello.

Where Aprilia needs to sharpen up relative to Ducati is in qualifying. Bezzecchi was the best of the Aprilias on the timesheet in seventh, 0.216s off Di Giannantonio’s session-topping lap. Jorge Martin shadowed him in eighth.

The RS-GPs top speed isn’t an issue, but Mugello’s hard braking zones are a big problem for tyre temperatures. So, starting anywhere beyond the front two rows is going to cause headaches, and that’s something Aprilia needs to avoid after its messy Barcelona weekend.