Bagnaia (and Quartararo) can win the MotoGP championship if…

Bagnaia leads Quartararo by 23 points in the MotoGP standings heading into the title-decider, having stunningly overturned a 91-point deficit.

• Bagnaia will begin the race in eighth, Quartararo fourth. Jorge Martin is on pole position - Valencia MotoGP, Ricardo Tormo - Full Qualifying Results

Bagnaia will win the championship if…

• - Quartararo doesn’t win
• - Bagnaia finishes P14 or higher
• - Bagnaia finishes P15 and Quartararo doesn’t win

Quartararo will win the championship if…

• - Quartararo wins and Bagnaia is P15 or lower

The odds are clearly stacked in Bagnaia’s favour.

Quartararo won his maiden title last year and, unless he can somehow find a way to defend it, Bagnaia will become a first-time champion.

MotoGP champions

2021 - Fabio Quartararo (Yamaha)

2020 - Joan Mir (Suzuki)

2019 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2018 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2017 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2016 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2015 - Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha)

2014 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2013 - Marc Marquez (Honda)

2012 - Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha)

2011 - Casey Stoner (Honda)

2010 - Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha)

2009 - Valentino Rossi (Yamaha)

2008 - Valentino Rossi (Yamaha)

2007 - Casey Stoner (Ducati)