Why Marc Marquez’s Qatar MotoGP title shot could be ruined by rider absences

A dwindling MotoGP grid for the Qatar Grand Prix could prove costly for Marc Marquez, as it may make it impossible for him to win the title on Sunday.

After winning Saturday’s sprint at Lusail, with Aprilia’s Jorge Martin third, Marquez’s first match point in the 2026 championship battle has been set for the Qatar Grand Prix.

If he wins the race on Sunday, Martin cannot score any points for Marquez to be crowned an eight-time world champion with two rounds to spare.

However, an already depleted Qatar grid could get even smaller on Sunday, which could all but end Marquez’s hopes of winning the title on Sunday.

17 starters set for Sunday could be reduced to 15

Eighteen riders started this weekend, following Yamaha’s shock decision to withdraw both of its teams from the Qatar Grand Prix due to security concerns about racing in the Gulf region.

Honda was able to find a replacement for the unwell Joan Mir in the form of Jake Dixon, while Gresini has replaced Alex Marquez with Iker Lecuona to partner Fermin Aldeguer on his comeback.

That ensured the grid stood at 18 riders coming into the Qatar round.

However, a foot injury for Pecco Bagnaia in the sprint means 17 riders will start Sunday’s grand prix. And that number could drop still.

Tech3 KTM’s Maverick Vinales, who was 15th in the sprint, told the media on Saturday that he may withdraw from Sunday’s race as he continues to battle pain in his injured shoulder.

“There's no point in continuing like this; I'm only hurting myself mentally,” he is reported by Motorsport as saying.

“It's just going around in circles. I'm starting to find it hard to stand not going fast because of my physical condition.

“I don't know what's better, whether to stop completely or keep going around aimlessly.

“Tomorrow I could go out and finish last, but I don't really feel like it. What I want is to stop and get back to 100%, which I doubt will happen this year.”

Honda’s Luca Marini is also a doubt for the grand prix due to illness continuing to impact his physical fitness.

What does this mean for Marc Marquez?

If only 15 riders do start Sunday’s grand prix, it means every rider will score a point should they make it to the chequered flag.

Martin finished third in the sprint despite carrying a wrist fracture. His physical condition is likely to be tested even more of the full race distance on Sunday.

But all he has to do is finish 15th, provided Marquez wins, to keep his title hopes alive to the Portuguese Grand Prix later this month.

Marquez has also ruled out winning the title on Sunday, as he doesn’t believe he has the pace to match polesitter Marco Bezzecchi.

If Marquez doesn’t win tomorrow, regardless of what happens to Martin, he will not be champion.