The fate of Silverstone’s unusual MotoGP win stat rests in Aprilia’s hands

Say what you will about Silverstone as a MotoGP venue, it’s proven to be anything but predictable for the last decade or so. In the last 11 editions of the British Grand Prix at the former RAF base in the currently rain-parched Northamptonshire countryside, 11 different riders across five separate manufacturers have scored a victory.

This unique run began in 2013 when Jorge Lorenzo narrowly defeated Marc Marquez in a thriller to the line. Marquez exacted his revenge a year later, before Valentino Rossi put in one of the great performances of his late-stage MotoGP career in the wet in 2015.

In 2016, Maverick Vinales ended Suzuki’s wait for a victory, while Andrea Dovizioso triumphed in 2017. The 2019 race went the way of Suzuki and Alex Rins, who beat Marquez in another thriller that went to the wire. Fabio Quartararo was successful in 2021, followed by Pecco Bagnaia in 2022, Aleix Espargaro in 2023, Enea Bastianini in 2024 and Marco Bezzecchi last year.

With five riders coming into the 2026 British Grand Prix split by just 24 points and eight within 65, there really couldn’t have been a better place to resume hostilities in one of MotoGP’s most unpredictable seasons in ages than Silverstone.

But why has there been 11 winners in 11 years at the British Grand Prix?

It was a question posed to the riders on Thursday at Silverstone, and one answered with various theories.

“It's rainy,” Franco Morbidelli offered, though clearly not this year, with much of England in the middle of a drought. “The track, the conditions change a lot. That can be one reason. Then I cannot tell you much more.”

Alex Marquez added: “I think here it's quite crazy because last year, for example, on the sprint on Saturday, I was the fastest one and having a lot of margin to kind of win on Sunday also. But then from Saturday to Sunday, the weather changed a lot. So windy and everything. And our laps, I think, on Sunday were like nearly two seconds slower than Saturday.”

Joan Mir suggested: “You never know in MotoGP, but it's a track that normally the conditions are very tricky, quite cold and also a wide track. It's hard to find the correct lines. Also, the tyre consumption plays a big role on this track. I don't know exactly why, but last year, for example, I remember that we were close to finishing on the podium.

“We were there in the fight for it, even if the previous races were not the best ones and the layout is not perfect; it's not the best one for us. So for some reason, the track gives you more opportunity [to capitalise on others’] struggle. Maybe the rider can make more difference with the wind. You have to adapt more quickly. It's a difficult track. It's a very difficult track.”

Silverstone’s open expanse means there is no cover from the wind. The track may as well have been the eye of a hurricane last year during the main race. Because of the high-speed nature of the circuit, harder tyres get used, and any change in temperatures can impact grip in a big way. In the aero era, Silverstone’s wind has been particularly menacing.

The wind was not so bad on Friday, though it has a tendency to change from day to day. Regardless, it looks like it will take a bit more than some gusts to knock Aprilia off course for what is looking like a nailed-on victory for one of its riders this weekend.

What a difference a year makes

The 2025 British Grand Prix saw Aprilia claim victory with Bezzecchi, coming just weeks after news broke that Jorge Martin was looking to break his contract with the brand early. While it was a gifted victory in some sense, as Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo retired from a commanding lead due to a ride height device issue, it was really the beginning of the RS-GP’s ascent to title contender.

Returning to Silverstone, Aprilia was easily the favourite coming into the weekend. That tag hasn’t diminished after Bezzecchi set a 1m56.280s to smash the existing lap record for the circuit and lead Practice outright.

In some ways, this was a victory in itself - perhaps the first of the weekend. Bezzecchi endured a torrid run into the summer break, which was capped off by a crash at the German Grand Prix that left him with a fractured collarbone.

He’s still feeling the effects of this, and a knee injury that was treated in the break, but gritted his teeth for an impressive performance.

“The injuries were both tough,” he told the media, including Crash, on Friday. “The shoulder was a collarbone, it's true, but the fracture was very bad. So also the surgery was complicated. The knee was a wound. Very deep. So in Germany they closed it to allow me to fly, but I had to reopen it. And when they reopened it, they saw that I also ‘scratched’ my bone. So the surgery also in the knee was complicated.”

Aprilia was in total control at Silverstone on Friday, with the RS-GP fastest in all four splits of the circuit. Bezzecchi topped three of them, while Raul Fernandez was fastest in the other.

A repeat of his 2025 Silverstone win looks difficult at this stage for Bezzecchi, however. He noted after practice that, because of the knee injury, he’s having to force the bike a lot, and that is impacting him when it comes to long running.

He did his work on the soft tyre and wasn’t miles off the pace, though his fitness will be the real limitation in the races. Trackhouse’s Fernandez was slightly faster, though, on the medium tyre, albeit over only a short run. However, what tyre will be best for the sprint on Saturday remains a bit of a mystery.

Consumption is high at Silverstone. For the grand prix, the medium will be the universal choice. It could be the option for the sprint, too, as Fernandez did to great effect at Mugello. Asked by Crash on Friday if repeating that strategy was a possibility, Fernandez admitted he didn’t have enough data yet to make that call.

Of the Trackhouse duo, Ai Ogura looked like he would end up fastest. He was the first rider ever to breach the 1m56s mark at Silverstone. But he would end up 0.530s off the pace in fifth. He deemed it an “acceptable” lap, but doesn’t feel confident he has pace to battle for the podium. His average pace backs that up at this stage.

However, if the British Grand Prix becomes a race of tyre wear, Ogura will be a major threat.

Jorge Martin also has work to do, but he was much happier with his feeling on the front-end of his Aprilia. The Spaniard said he went back to a set-up that worked for him prior to the Catalan Grand Prix. That made him more comfortable, but missing last year’s British Grand Prix proved a big hindrance in getting used to the track again. That would explain his pace deficit relative to Bezzecchi and Fernandez at this stage.

Can Ducati do anything to stop Aprilia?

The top eight on the timesheets at the end of Practice had managed to beat the old lap record set by Quartararo last season. Of the top seven, all of them were either on a Ducati or an Aprilia. Honda’s Luca Marini offered that track conditions were perfect for such a performance, but noted that it was the clearest sign yet of the step Aprilia and Ducati have done with their 2026 bikes.

“Track temperature. This helped us a little bit because a little bit more temperature is better in this track, because it's not too much track temperature,” Marini, who was outside the top 10, said. “So it's the correct amount to be in a comfortable situation, with the front tyre that is not too cold and with a good performance in the rear. What we saw also in the last couple of races is that the Aprilia and Ducati this year improved so much. They were already in a fantastic level, but now they reached really another step that is huge.”

But Ducati has some work to do to have any hope of quashing Aprilia’s charge at Silverstone.

Fabio Di Giannantonio was the brand’s leading rider in third, 0.398s off the pace set by Bezzecchi. Di Giannantonio didn’t get a chance to see where the Aprilia was making the difference, but was convinced that the RS-GP has more over the GP26 still.

Marc Marquez, who was sixth, remarked that Di Giannantonio and Alex Marquez - who was pegged as pre-race favourite by Pecco Bagnaia on Thursday - “are fast”, but the Aprilia riders are able to be more consistent.

Marc Marquez’s average pace looks good on paper, but he was not consistent in any of his long running. Unsurprisingly, he is struggling with his physical condition even more than he was at Silverstone last year.

At this stage, the podium is out of reach. He is facing a similar weekend to Assen at this stage, though he said he was “a bit more optimistic than Assen.” Team-mate Pecco Bagnaia, who faces Q1 after a late crash in PR, continues to struggle with the front-end.

After Friday, Ducati seemingly has a chance of a podium. But it faces unfavourable circumstances to try to be Aprilia. The layout suits the RS-GP more than it does the GP26, while races of high tyre wear have tended to play into Aprilia’s favour more, as the Ducati has to turn more with the rear, which chews up its rubber more quickly.

But 11 different winners in the last 11 British Grands Prix is proof that anything remains possible…