“I’m a believer” - Why Marc Marquez can’t be ruled out of 2026 MotoGP title hunt

Marc Marquez knocked on the door of his 100th grand prix victory in all classes last September at the San Marino Grand Prix, where he famously offered up a Lionel Messi-inspired podium celebration to hit back at Italian fans still cold to his success in rosso.

As he described it last Sunday, he was “on the crest” as he sailed towards a seventh world title he would wrap up just weeks later in Japan. It was hard to imagine then the sudden halt to his dominance, following the crash in Indonesia which left him with a badly injured right shoulder.

And it’s been an injury that has plagued him at the start of this season. Qualifying and sprint results were still coming easily, but there was no grand prix podium to shout about. After fracturing his foot in a qualifying crash at Le Mans, he revealed to the world that his shoulder had been causing him more issues than he was letting on.

Metalwork damaged when he crashed in Indonesia has been touching his radial nerve, but it was only manifesting when on a MotoGP bike, and randomly at that.

Surgery on his shoulder was a success, and he was back on the bike at Mugello. He was seventh at the end of that weekend, bereft of energy. Ducati boss Davide Tardozzi noted during the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend that Marquez was a lot more blue in the days after Mugello than he imagined he would be, owing to the physical toll taken on his body.

That didn’t stop Marquez’s rivals elevating him to the level of favourite ahead of the Balaton Park weekend. He played that down, noting on Thursday: “No, forget [it]. I mean if I fight for the win or for the podium it means that the others are doing something not in a good way.”

He then snatched pole from Pedro Acosta, eased to victory in the sprint and made a contra-tyre strategy work in the main race to come from behind to beat Acosta to tally up his long-awaited 100th grand prix victory.

It’s a win that didn’t necessarily come with it a huge outpouring of emotion from Marquez. But his post-race comments revealed the significance of it, as well as the personal growth that has come in the wake of his 2020 arm injury.

“I already understood in 2020 that an athlete’s life can change from one day to the other,” he said. “But to experience again when you are on the crest [of the wave] was hard on the physical side, but was harder on the mental side. We worked a lot, the first races were super hard. Now I’m a believer. I try to do my 100%. I need to try.”

Make no mistake, this was a vintage Marquez display. But it also wasn’t Marquez at his best. He was fast all weekend, but was also managing his physical condition, trying not to exert too much stress on his body for when he’d need it the most.

Balaton Park was always going to be a track that suited him more than Mugello. In fact, he revealed in the post-race press conference he pushed to return at the Italian Grand Prix in order to prepare for Hungary, knowing it would be a good opportunity to win.

The anticlockwise, slow, twisty layout plays to his riding strengths, and equally masks his current physical limitations: “There was only three right corners with hard braking points, so this helped me to breathe…The shoulder feels empty; when I overtook Acosta, I used a lot of energy there”.

And yet, he is just the second rider this year to complete a perfect 37-point weekend, doing so from pole position. Not at his best, Marquez remains a frightful force. And one who now can’t be ruled out as a title contender, whether he considers himself one or not.

‘He deserves the ninth world title and the tenth’

Ducati team boss Davide Tardozzi didn’t mince his words when he was spoken to by MotoGP’s Jack Appleyard immediately after the chequered flag when asked what Marquez’s Hungarian Grand Prix win said about his character: “That he deserves the ninth title he has in the pocket, and maybe the tenth”.

Marquez is, of course, an eight-time grand prix world champion. Certainly, it was a comment made in the heat of the moment. But it’s hard to look past it as Ducati genuinely believes 2026 is still Marquez’s season to lose.

Predictably, Marquez played this down when asked about. But, as he so often does, his own ambitions did seep through in contradictory words: “The championship is super long, but at the moment we are not in shape,” he said. “I don’t feel that I’m ready to fight, honestly speaking.”

But, in the same answer, he also said: “It depends a lot on Brno and Assen, and then on the summer break. I still have to reach my new 100%. And from that point I will understand. But of course, you know me, if I’m here it’s to fight every race, every practice, and just I would like to enjoy it.”

Marquez is truly at his happiest when he is winning.

That was evident on Sunday in Hungary. He went with the medium rear tyre while KTM’s Pedro Acosta opted for the soft. For the latter, now reaching the surprising mark of most MotoGP podiums without a win, the softer rubber was the only tool he though he had to take the fight to Marquez.

And he did, passing him on the second lap and, at one point, building up a lead of over 1.5s in the early stages. It took about five laps for the medium rear tyre to come up to temperature and perform.

Acosta set fastest laps on lap two and three. His benchmark of 1m38.865s was bettered by Marquez on lap six with a 1m38.599s. That saw the gap between them shrink from 1.637s to 0.938s. Marquez put in another fastest lap of 1m38.495s on the eighth tour, with Acosta responding twice in a row with a 1m38.460s and a 1m38.419s.

The latter came on lap 10, with Marquez bettering it at a 1m38.395s on the same tour as the gap between them came down to 0.594s. This was a dog fight being played out by two riders - two future Ducati team-mates, no less - enveloped by the prospect of two very different, but equally significant, season-firsts.

Marquez was go faster still on lap 13 with a 1m38.314s, before launching his first raid on Acosta’s lead at the Turn 9/10 chicane. He did get the move done, but Acosta scythed through again on the inside of Turn 11. They then touched at Turn 16, Acosta getting his elbows out. Marquez tried again at Turn 9/10 next time around and made the move stick.

Instantly, his lead swelled to 0.760s, and then to 1.271s. The hammer blow came on lap 20 when, 1.703s in front, he posted another new fastest lap of 1m38.313s.

“When a fighter meets another fighter, then the battle is there,” Marquez said.

That killer mentality, though maybe wounded right now, is ever-present. And Marquez, after the calamity that befell Aprilia at Turn 1, is now just 72 points down on Marco Bezzecchi after Hungary.

There’s still 518 points up for grabs in 2026. A 72-point deficit is still big, and leaves Marquez in a position where one mistake will end any hopes he may have. But there are a number of factors to consider that only strengthen the case to be made that he is, in fact, a major threat.

Obviously, there is the points situation mentioned above. But what was significant about Marquez’s two wins at Balaton Park was how he was able to unlock that form from his Ducati. But on Friday in Hungary, Marquez and team-mate Pecco Bagnaia had been struggling with rear grip. Come Saturday, rear grip was the area where Marquez excelled. Acosta labelled it “quite strange” to see how much of an advantage Marquez had in the early laps of the sprint in terms of grip.

What’s significant about this is that, compared to Mugello, Marquez clearly pushed with his team after Friday practice to adjust the bike for performance - not to make it as friendly as possible for his physical condition. Though there will be an element of exploration at Brno and Assen - two clockwise tracks - of his physical condition, Marquez goes there chasing speed now.

Now he has two weeks before Brno, where can adjust his off-track preparation and chase strength. If he can come through Brno and Assen in strong form, the last race before the summer break is at his beloved Sachsenring - another anticlockwise circuit. The next few weeks present some major opportunities that his rivals must be wary of.

Aprilia pressure is increased after Turn 1 pile-up

The other factor strengthening Marquez’s title ambitions is the fact Aprilia gifted him the opportunity to carve a huge chunk out of Bezzecchi’s lead in Hungary.

It hadn’t been the easiest weekend for Bezzecchi up to Sunday, but he weathered that storm pretty well. He salvaged third in the sprint to extend his championship lead over Jorge Martin to 20 points.

A podium challenge was very likely on Sunday given Aprilia’s tendency to come on strongest in the grand prix. But it all unravelled in spectacular fashion at Turn 1 when Martin got out of shape under braking and wiped out Bezzecchi, Fabio Di Giannantonio, Raul Fernandez and Fermin Aldeguer.

It was a collision all escaped unharmed from. But the stewards took a dim view and hit Martin with a double long lap penalty for the upcoming Czech Grand Prix. Aprilia CEO Massimo Rivola branded it “a mistake a world champion should not make”, in a critical - but fair - assessment of what Martin did.

The crash comes amid talk of banning ride height devices following the Turn 1 incident at Barcelona a few weeks ago. Others have also defended Martin’s position, noting that grip levels at the resurfaced Turn 1 were particularly poor; Pecco Bagnaia warned of such an incident on Friday in Hungary.

But Rivola was quite right when he said: “If we go to Barcelona, we say that it's too dangerous at the first corner. When you are on Sunday, you know very well the track layout, the grip condition. I think that at the first corner, everybody should take it a bit more easy. Then, the fact that we are also unlucky that when we crash, we have another Aprilia or even two in the middle, it looks also stupid. But the point is that when you know that the conditions are bad, you take it more easy.”

Troublingly for Aprilia, this is the second time Martin has triggered such an incident involving his team-mate - though Rivola notes that the Motegi sprint clash was slightly different. It’s more poor luck that other Aprilias have been caught up in that type of clash, but that makes it no less easy to swallow.

Not least just a week on from a dream home round at Mugello that began with a discussion about rules of engagement among Aprilia’s four riders after Martin and Fernandez’s clash at Barcelona. Let’s not forget Martin’s reaction to that particular incident that day.

Rivola has done a lot of crisis management with Martin over the last year or so. But one does have to wonder, even with such a narrow gap in the standings just now, how long Aprilia maintains a level playing field in the title battle before it does implement proper team orders.

For Martin, his hopes could take a significant knock at Brno with two long-lap penalties to serve. Bezzecchi has to brush off Balaton Park and make the most of that opportunity.

But there is no escaping the mammoth task Aprilia faces now. It has to manage both of its factory riders in the wake of an avoidable friendly fire incident. It has to do so with one of those combatants leaving at the end of the year. It also has to manage two Trackhouse riders, one of whom is leaving and the other fighting to save their career. All of that on top of the new pressure it faces as a true title challenger.

And now Aprilia has to keep one eye well and truly behind it with Marc Marquez beginning his resurgence in a title battle that has taken on a new phase at the Hungarian Grand Prix…