The crucial gain that could produce much-needed Assen MotoGP rebound for Aprilia

The 1-2 on home soil at Mugello feels like a very long time ago now, given events that have unfolded since. Yet, only two rounds have passed since Marco Bezzecchi won the Italian Grand Prix.

In that span, however, he has been knocked out of the Hungarian Grand Prix by his team-mate Jorge Martin, and banned from the Czech Grand Prix after striking a marshal following a crash in the sprint.

His championship lead has been whittled down to just eight points by Martin. More worryingly, Aprilia’s collapse has come as Marc Marquez - who scored nothing at Le Mans and was absent from the Catalan round due to shoulder surgery - won back-to-back grands prix to cut his own championship deficit down to just 40 points.

The tale of the Dutch Grand Prix so far has centred on whether this is a must-win event for Aprilia.

Still feeling down about his actions at Brno, Bezzecchi dusted himself down in the best way possible on Friday at Assen, as he topped both practice sessions on his Aprilia. He led the afternoon session by 0.177s from fellow Aprilia rider Raul Fernandez, as the RS-GP looks to have an edge over the rest of the field.

If there is a circuit that suits Aprilia’s current package well, it’s Assen. The fast, flowing layout is ideal for the RS-GP’s agility and stability. Conversely, it’s probably one of the worst for Ducati’s Marc Marquez (alongside another strong Aprilia venue in Silverstone), and even more so as he continues to recover from a long-standing shoulder issue.

After winning at Brno, Marquez warned that Assen would be a weekend of survival for him. But he was fully fit at Assen last season and still struggled, yet came away with a brace of wins as Aprilia couldn’t quite crack his resolve.

What helped Marquez in particular at Assen last year, when he came from the second row of the grid, was how strong he was able to be in the fast final split, which features the sweeping left of Turn 15. Whenever Bezzecchi brought Marquez’s lead gap down, the Ducati rider was able to ensure his flank was covered using the strength of his riding through left-hand corners.

It was a small advantage, but it was enough to halt Bezzecchi and Aprilia’s charge. But the opposite is now true in 2026, with Aprilia outclassing the field in the final sector. It’s an advantage that’s not gone unnoticed.

“They are making a huge difference at T4 [sector four],” Pecco Bagnaia, who was top Ducati on Friday at Assen, said. “And we just need to focus on that. I think that I can do something better on that.”

Ai Ogura was the fastest rider through sector four in Practice, but Bezzecchi was a close second. Both were around 0.150s quicker than the next non-Aprilia, which was KTM’s Pedro Acosta, while Ducati was about the same distance adrift.

Bezzecchi hadn’t analysed any data when he spoke to the media, simply noting that the RS-GP has largely improved everywhere while retaining its strong turning. That, he believes, is the reason for his and Ogura’s advantage in the final sector.

Raul Fernandez, on the sister Trackhouse Aprilia, theorised: “Ai and Marco gave me two tenths in the last sector. So, I think they are also making the difference. I think the bike improved a lot in the last sector because Fabiano [Sterlacchini] was really focused on trying to improve the last sector. Last year they lost too many times on the last left corner. And they were really.

“This year we improved, but also the riders made one step. Maybe the heat doesn't help to all the riders. It's just Ai and Marco that can manage very well in the chicane to brake well until the last moment. So, maybe they are also making the difference.”

This is a pertinent point, because Bezzecchi noted that the Aprilia still had some stability issues to work through at Assen.

Why that last sector gain matters for Aprilia

Assen is a notoriously tricky circuit to overtake at in the modern era. This year could be even more difficult given the sweltering heat enveloping Europe right now. Assen baked under 36C heat on Friday, and the sprint is set to be run in similar conditions.

Jorge Martin, who crashed late on in Practice but still secured a Q2 place, remarked that the heat being experienced right now is comparable to the Indian Grand Prix of 2023; he fainted at the conclusion of that race due to dehydration and heat exhaustion.

Greater heat means front tyre temperatures will go through the roof, which in turn lessens grip, and then likely leads to more rear wear because more turning on the throttle will have to be done to compensate. Bagnaia believed all of the crashes seen in Practice on Friday afternoon were heat-related.

As such, qualifying is going to be even more important than usual. Just over 0.250s covered the leading Aprilias, KTM and Ducati at the end of Friday’s second session. That sets up a nice Q2 battle, but one in which Aprilia clearly has an edge in.

If it can convert that one-lap speed, boosted by its sector four advantage, then Aprilia currently shakes out with the best race pace based on Practice analysis.

Bezzecchi was well clear of second-placed Raul Fernandez based on a five-lap stint on a fresh medium rear. Ogura was much closer and is closing in on a maiden win, based on his recent qualifying gains.

Aprilia didn’t do much used-tyre running in Practice, instead splitting its stints over one on a fresh medium and one on a fresh soft. Pedro Acosta was in the mix on the KTM, having run used soft rubber.

KTM has been having stability issues, so Acosta is working overtime to keep his RC16 close to the Aprilias and the leading Ducatis. Bagnaia looks like the strongest challenge to Aprilia right now, having been Bezzecchi’s closest rival in race pace averages on the medium rear in our Practice analysis.

His wasn’t a straightforward day. Ducati couldn’t quite get his set-up right at the start of Practice, which left him down in 17th come the crucial time attack phase. Several yellow flags, as well as a late red flag, put him in danger of dropping into Q1. But he produced a good, if scrappy, final lap on a used soft rear to end the day fifth overall.

Bagnaia’s reigning champion team-mate Marc Marquez made it through to Q2, but his race pace remains an unknown. His runs were erratic, as they were at Brno, as he tries to manage his physical condition through the weekend up to the race. But he’s also not enjoying the risk involved in riding at Assen.

"With a small mistake, you can pay a very expensive [price],” he said. “I’m not riding comfortably, but I'm riding okay. T1 [sector 1], I feel okay, but then T2, T3, T4, I'm not enjoying.”

“I don't like it because - first, I've won races here - but it's very fast, narrow, and the run-off areas are full of very, very big rocks in the gravel that are in the rules, but… It's the kind of circuit where I hope for some rain, but it will not be the case this year. And yeah, try to survive.”

Marquez had a crash at the last chicane in FP1, but walked away unscathed from it. For the Spaniard, he has to just get through the Assen weekend in as best a shape as possible, limiting the damage in the championship, to make a renewed push at his beloved Sachsenring in a few weeks’ time.

Start device rule change a step into the unknown

Another element making qualifying even more crucial at Assen is the new rules on starts, after the banning of the front holeshot devices.

Two practice start sessions were run at the end of FP1 and PR on Friday to allow riders to try the new start procedure. This move will give a bit of control back to the riders, which, in theory, should allow a little more talent to shine through.

For those with experience of the pre-holeshot days, this could be an advantage. Someone like Bezzecchi has always known the devices, whereas Marquez has experience of both.

A move designed to make starts safer for riders, it’s also likely to catch quite a few out in the early stages of this rule change. The Aprilia has been a rapid starter this year so far. On Friday, that looked like it was still true. But, as has been the case for the Noale brand’s season, that can change very quickly…