Marc Marquez returns to scene of his greatest MotoGP triumph facing make-or-break race

On 28 September 2025, Marc Marquez finished second in a Japanese Grand Prix that felt like a full-circle moment for the Spaniard. It saw him become world champion for a seventh time, his first on Ducati machinery.

But, more significantly, it was a day in which he found “peace” within. Five years prior, Marquez suffered a career-altering arm injury at Jerez. The years that followed were painful, as he underwent four major operations to get back to full fitness, only for Honda to let him down when he needed it the most.

At the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, he scored his final podium for Honda. A few days later, his move to Gresini Ducati was confirmed. Marquez needed a fresh start to see if he could truly be the rider who won six world titles between 2013 and 2019 again.

That question was answered emphatically two years later, when he took the chequered flag at Motegi decked out in factory Ducati colours to equal Valentino Rossi’s tally of seven premier class championships.

Given everything he’d been through up to that point, and the fact that he simply physically was not the rider he used to be, it surely marked the greatest achievement of his career.

As MotoGP returns to the Japanese Grand Prix this weekend, the picture couldn’t be so different for the 33-year-old. Just days after he lifted the 2025 world title, he suffered a complicated shoulder injury at the Indonesian Grand Prix. The aftereffects of that caused bigger problems than were realised earlier this year.

At one stage, he was 102 points down on the championship lead. Five grands prix victories later, he comes to Motegi 12 points adrift, having briefly led the way after the San Marino weekend. But he has done so with a great deal of help from his rivals screwing up at inopportune times, while operating further away from his physical peak.

Marquez doesn’t want to talk about his arm anymore. But it’s hard to ignore the subject, not least when his surgeon recently revealed that his right bicep is operating 50% below its full capacity.

It can also be argued that Ducati is not the bike it was a year ago, either. It’s not a bad bike, by any stretch of the imagination. But when it has an off-weekend, it seems to get hammered. That was the case at Assen and Silverstone - fast, flowing tracks that exposed just how good the Aprilia can be, and just how back the Ducati can get when it’s struggling.

Given this to-and-fro between Aprilia and Ducati, as well as the physical demands some circuits place on Marquez now, this has become a very different championship battle to anything the 33-year-old has experienced before. This is a title battle where you have to maximise your good weekends and survive the bad ones.

Marquez did that in Hungary, Germany and Aragon, sweeping both races on those weekends. At Brno, he managed a victory in the main race, while capitalising on misfortune for Aprilia duo Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin to win at Misano.

But Austria was a missed opportunity. There was always a sense that Ducati would have to work harder to try and get a win at the Red Bull Ring. The stiffer Michelin rear tyre casing brought to the event hasn’t worked well for Ducati since Indonesia last year. Marquez salvaged a podium from the sprint, but he cast a face of thunder in post-race celebrations. A step forward had been made for the grand prix, but a brake issue robbed him of a chance to, he thought, at least finish second.

Instead, he was fifth as Martin extended his championship lead to 12 points, while Bezzecchi closed in with a third-place finish.

Motegi has never been a particularly good track for Aprilia. Bezzecchi’s fourth last year represented its best result. It’s much better for Ducati, due to its stop-and-go layout. But Ducati has been dealt a potential blow already ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix weekend.

The Motegi asphalt has been resurfaced for this year. As such, Michelin is bringing an expanded tyre range, with the hard rear featuring the stiffer carcass that was used in Austria. Last year’s race tyre was the medium, but should the new surface be particularly abrasive and make the hard the more suitable option, Ducati faces a disadvantage compared to the Aprilia, which can fire up that tyre well.

It’s a headache that Ducati and Marquez could have done without. Motegi is an important, arguably make-or-break weekend in Marquez’s title hopes. He really needs to bank 37 points, while hoping for some misfortune to go Martin’s way, because the next run of races isn’t going to be easy.

The Indonesian Grand Prix follows next week, with nothing good ever happening to Marquez at Mandalika. The stiffer rear tyre carcass will be back, while the layout won’t be the easiest on Marquez’s body.

Phillip Island was a strong weekend for Aprilia last season, while Sepang isn’t one of Marquez’s strongest circuits. He banished his Qatar demons in 2025, but there’s no guarantee it will go ahead due to the war in Iran. If it vanishes, that’s fewer points on the board, with the following round in Portugal one of the worst places for a championship to potentially be decided for Marquez.

The Valencia finale at the anticlockwise Ricardo Tormo will play much more favourably into Marquez’s hands. But he has to try to get there first with his championship challenge intact. And that will not be easy.

When asked in Austria what the biggest advantage he will have in the championship battle with his rivals was, he replied: “My bike and my team.” Ahead of this weekend’s Motegi round, he once again beat the drum of team unity in his remarks.

"The 2025 Japanese GP represents an indelible memory that creates a special bond between me and the Ducati Lenovo Team,” he said. “That memory, along with the incredible affection of the Japanese fans, gives me an extra boost for the weekend. Motegi is a track I really enjoy: the goal is to do well and be competitive.”