The signs that hint Hungary MotoGP history could repeat itself for one winless rider

If you were rocked by a sense of deja vu on Friday while watching practice at the 2026 MotoGP Hungarian Grand Prix, it’s because today took on a very familiar feel to 12 months ago.

Marc Marquez led FP1 on the factory Ducati, marking the first time he’s done that since last year’s visit to Balaton Park. Pedro Acosta then set the pace in the hour-long Practice in the afternoon… exactly like he did in Hungary last year.

Back then, it really did feel like Acosta was within touching distance of a maiden MotoGP victory. But the strong one-lap and race pace that he had was ultimately undone on Saturday when he crashed in qualifying. He ultimately came through to finish second in the grand prix. But it was another prime opportunity wasted.

Since then, Acosta has still only been able to win a solitary sprint. And even then, it was somewhat gifted following a penalty for Marquez at the Thai Grand Prix.

In 2026, Acosta has just one Sunday podium to his credit, back at the US Grand Prix in March. Overall, his form on the KTM has been mixed. A week on from an Italian Grand Prix where he had to come through Q1 and was a distant sixth in the main race, Acosta was in exceptional form.

He was fastest on Friday afternoon at Balaton Park, leading the field by 0.413s with a 1m36.827s. Confusingly, the feeling he has on the factory KTM isn’t all that different - he said on Friday - to what he experienced at Mugello.

“At the end, it’s quite strange for us to understand why I’m competitive in Barcelona, really slow in Mugello, and again competitive here. This is not normal, and we have to understand something, because if not, it’s impossible to make constant weekends throughout the year to try to arrive to the final target, which is too… it’s not my case, but to fight for a championship you need to be really constant during the year.

“A bad race cannot be P12, let’s say. We need to understand this.”

Balaton Park is more suited to the KTM. The bike has struggled in a straight line this year, which is negated by the Hungarian venue’s twisty layout. The hard braking zones play into Acosta’s riding strength. That is evident in his speed through sector three, where he is making all the difference compared to the rest of the field.

Given how tricky overtaking is at Balaton Park, half the battle will be to nail qualifying. If Acosta can do that, then the options to make amends for his missed opportunity in Hungary last year are massively boosted.

That said, a confusing race pace analysis after Friday’s running does leave question marks above Acosta’s head over whether or not, even with a strong qualifying, he can go all the way come Sunday.

Aprilia surge an ever-present threat

Acosta was one of the earliest switches to fresh soft rubber during Practice to try to secure a place in Q2. Therefore, the sample of data we have to understand what his race pace actually looks like is tiny.

Over three laps on a new soft rear tyre, he averaged 1m37.672s. This was pace he was happy with, but acknowledged that he had to find something on the medium rear. That was the race option used by Marc Marquez last year.

It’s also an option a number of riders favoured on Friday for their long running. It proved to be the winning choice in the Mugello sprint last weekend, with Raul Fernandez and Jorge Martin feeling that the soft pushed the front too much under braking.

Fernandez was confident he could race the medium this weekend to good effect, after ending Friday as the leading Aprilia runner in third. Others will surely have taken note of what happened last weekend at Mugello.

Aprilia typically have back-to-front weekends, where championship leader Marco Bezzecchi and team-mate Jorge Martin come from a weaker position on Friday to then ultimately be the dominant force on Sunday.

Bezzecchi noted on Friday at Balaton Park that he’s struggling under braking, particularly in sector three. He was sixth overall at the end of Practice. His race pace works out slower than Acosta’s average, but he did a much longer run.

Fernandez’s long run data was a bit useless, while Martin appeared off the pace, too. But the Aprilia worked well at Balaton Park last year, with Bezzecchi leading for a while before finishing third, while Martin rose from 18th on the grid to fourth.

Given Aprilia’s general Sunday form this year, backing Acosta to halt is a bold strategy. The KTM is an inconsistent package, but one that consistently seems to fade as races go on.

More concerning for Acosta’s hopes is the lack of allies to fall back on. He was over a second quicker than the next-best KTM at the end of Practice, which was Enea Bastianini in 15th. Aprilia, meanwhile, has all four of its bikes into Q2. Perennial race late-bloomer Ai Ogura, crucially, looks to have figured out his time attack form this weekend.

Can Marc Marquez really be the threat many predict him to be?

Coming into the Balaton weekend, the likes of Acosta and Martin pegged Marquez as favourite to win. The seven-time world champion kicked back at this on Thursday, noting that if he is able to win, then something has gone wrong for his rivals.

But there is logic in those predictions. It’s an anticlockwise track that removes the strain from the right side of his body, where his shoulder continues to recover. He was also dominant in the grand prix at Balaton last year.

Topping FP1 for the first time since last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix, Marquez ultimately fell back to seventh in the Practice classification. Some of that could be attributed to a fast lap late on going away from him due to a big moment and a trip through the gravel trap.

There was also a lot of self-preservation at play for the Ducati rider.

“I was more in control because I feel worse [than in Mugello],” he noted after Friday’s running. “Let's see if tomorrow I feel better. What I don't want to have is a big crash. It's true that when you are pushing, you can always crash, especially in tight corners. But today I tried to manage all those things and to keep in the tank some power for the next two days.”

By keeping something in reserve, we haven’t really seen his true potential yet. His race running was all over the place, as he “did a diesel day”. But there was some encouragement in his race running. There was a 1m37.907s on the 11th lap of a medium rear. Pedro Acosta’s best was a 1m37.418s on a soft rear that had half the distance on it.

Bezzecchi is convinced that Acosta and Marquez are a step ahead of him in terms of race pace, while the KTM rider nodded towards the reigning champion’s times on medium rubber as something to be wary of.

For the most part, the Ducati appears to be working well at Balaton Park. Fabio Di Giannantonio was second overall on his VR46-run GP26, and seemed to be suffering none of the issues Pecco Bagnaia experienced as he dropped to 14th with a lack of rear grip.

Fermin Aldeguer was also fast all day on the Gresini-run GP25, which is the bike that won last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix.

Marquez may not want to get ahead of himself, and his caution about his physical condition must be heeded. But there are a lot of positive signs heading into the rest of the weekend that his first win of the campaign is not far off…