MotoGP Indonesia: What we learned after Friday practice at Mandalika

Given his scorecard at the Indonesian Grand Prix, there is a genuine argument to be made that Marc Marquez has genuinely been cursed by the Mandalika circuit. He didn’t start the 2022 race after suffering a concussion in a huge crash during warm-up. He failed to finish in 2023, while his bike expired in 2024.

Last year, he made it through the first corner before his season was ended by a complicated shoulder injury after a collision with Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi.

On top of that, the Mandalika circuit is a fast layout that puts more strain on Marquez’s right shoulder. And the stiffer tyre carcass Michelin brings to Indonesia to cope with the heat favours the Aprilia more than it does Ducati.

If the Japanese Grand Prix was a must-win for Marquez, then Indonesia is very much a must-survive at this crucial stage of the championship battle.

That said, the weekend started in encouraging fashion for Marquez. The Aprilias were, as expected, a step ahead. Raul Fernandez posted a new lap record of 1m28.725s to lead an Aprilia 1-2-3 at the end of Practice.

But Marquez was in the conversation, particularly on race pace. In fact, all but one of the Ducatis secured a direct place in Q2, marking a far more positive outlook than was anticipated by the Bologna brand.

Raul Fernandez’s form rebound is bad news for Aprilia

Now, that statement may seem a little odd, and indeed even harsh. But with Fernandez 117 points down on championship leader Jorge Martin with six rounds to go, he’s not exactly Aprilia’s favoured combatant in the title race.

But Fernandez’s form is hardly unexpected. It was in Indonesia last year that his season was somewhat transformed. He scored a maiden sprint podium just a few weeks before his maiden grand prix victory in Malaysia.

Since winning the British Grand Prix in August, Fernandez’s form has declined. He failed to finish at Aragon, was sixth at Misano, 12th at the Red Bull Ring and fifth last weekend at Motegi.

The tyre Michelin has brought to Indonesia is the same construction as the one used in Thailand at the start of the season. On that specific tyre, Fernandez scored a brace of third-place finishes at Buriram.

Fernandez’s one-lap speed was good, but it was his race pace that really impressed. On the same soft tyre, he was just under 0.4s per lap faster on average that factory counterpart Marco Bezzecchi.

The Spaniard was also happy with the feeling he had on the medium tyre, which will likely be the race option on Sunday. But at this stage, his soft tyre pace makes him a shoo-in for victory in Saturday’s sprint.

Understandably, then, he’s feeling pretty good about himself and doesn’t feel like Bezzecchi, nor Martin, will have anything to offer him for the rest of the weekend.

“I don't want to feel that I am a superstar when I say [it] but right now I feel that it's very difficult,” he said when asked if the other Aprilias will catch up. “If you had to make an ideal track for Aprilia, it’s this one. Fast corners, flowing parts, super easy for us. With the medium I [almost] made a lap time to be in Q2 directly.”

Fernandez says “I don’t want to be in the middle” of the factory pair’s title battle. But he’s not going to roll over for them either if he has an opportunity to win a race. It’s for good reason that Marc Marquez noted on Friday: “I’m happy for Raul. I mean, if an Aprilia needs to perform well, I would prefer Raul or [Ai]. Ogura than the other two.”

Aprilia hasn’t outlined plans for team orders yet by the sound of things, with the Trackhouse duo noting that they would only consider it come the final two rounds when they know exactly where they are in the standings.

This could be a good weekend for Martin to put some daylight between himself and Marquez, and for Bezzecchi to close up even more. But a fast Fernandez plays into Marquez’s hands more than it does his Aprilia rivals’.

Martin is struggling, but Motegi showed how well he can rebound

Martin’s two-point championship lead is precarious as we begin the Indonesia weekend. It’s one mistake away from turning into a decent deficit to Marquez. And Martin didn’t get off on the right foot on Friday at Mandalika.

He was third overall on the time attack, but a 1m29.206s vs a 1m28.725s is a considerable margin Martin has if he wants to get into the pole fight.

His race pace was pretty dismal on the medium tyre and wildly inconsistent on the soft. He said he had a “strange” issue where his front tyre was getting “cold”, despite the sweltering temperatures.

Whether he was just unlucky with a bad front tyre or there is a deeper issue, he wasn’t confident at the end of the day.

“I’m quite far from where I want to be. I feel I was struggling all Practice. In the morning I felt super good, I did my fastest lap with really used tyres. But then in the afternoon, something changed, and I was struggling with the front a lot.”

Team-mate Bezzecchi was much happier, albeit of the opinion that Fernandez is “a step above everyone else”. Bezzecchi has no choice but to go on the attack this weekend to close down his 49-point deficit to Martin.

That, at this stage, looks possible given Martin’s struggles. But his ability to bounce back was evident in Japan, where he went from a bad Friday to challenging Marquez for the win.

Winning will be hard, but Marquez’s Indonesia curse may be over

One of the main questions that lingered after the dust had settled on his season-ending crash in Indonesia last year was just where Marc Marquez could have finished in the grand prix. It had been a difficult weekend for Ducati’s factory riders to that point on the stiffer Michelin tyre.

But he made a step in the warm-up and was feeling good for the race. That step helped condition his Friday this year, as it provided him with a good base set-up to work from.

He was second in FP1 and fifth at the end of Practice, 0.7s off the best pace. His best flying lap wasn’t particularly good. He was only noticeably fast in the final sector, so there is work to do there. In sector two especially, which is full of fast right-handers, he is well off.

But, given the physical nature of this track, perhaps there was an element of keeping his powder dry ahead of the big push on Saturday morning.

As is typical, Marquez spent his day on medium rubber. His pace was good. On the 14th lap on the tyre, he posted a 1m30.1s. On a similarly aged medium, KTM’s Pedro Acosta posted a 1m30.447s. Fernandez’s best time on a far fresher medium was a 1m29.793s on his first run in Practice.

To win the sprint and the grand prix will be difficult. To finish on the podium, now that’s entirely achievable based on his practice form.