F1's calendar uncertainty isn't over: What happens if more races are cancelled?

Team bosses say they have faith in Formula 1 and the FIA to make the right calls as the 2026 calendar remains in a state of flux amid the continued uncertainty in the Middle East.

While there have been moves towards peace in the region a recent Iranian strike on Bahrain was a reminder of how quickly the situation can change.

The F1 organisation and the FIA have been closely monitoring events. The biggest challenge is the timeline in terms of logistics, and how late any decisions can be made that impact the movement of equipment and personnel. There are two extreme scenarios that can potentially unfold.
 

One is that the end-of-season races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead as planned, possibly with the schedule given a further boost by the return of the cancelled Bahrain GP on October 4, the currently vacant slot between the Azerbaijan and Singapore events.  At the opposite end of the scale efforts to bring Bahrain back could be dropped and Qatar and Abu Dhabi could also ultimately be cancelled, leaving the schedule at 20 races.

If that happens Portimao is waiting in the wings as a potential season closer after Las Vegas. That would bump the final total up to 21. Portimao is due to join the calendar in 2027 with a deal that has already been agreed, and should it be granted a race in 2026 it would on favourable terms for the circuit because F1 is keen to keep the number of races up.
 

In the COVID-hit year of 2020 the total required to fulfil TV contracts and so on was 16, and in the end F1 managed to run 17 events. Since then the typical minimum number in TV deals has risen to 19-20. However F1 and the teams have some contracts which would benefit from a 21st event being held, hence the motivation to run a replacement race.

“I think ultimately Stefano [Domenicali] and the FIA are going to work through the calendar,” said McLaren’s Zak Brown when asked about the situation by Crash.net.  “So we'll race where they tell us we're racing, and we'll be happy to do that. I think we all have the same challenge as far as kind of managing through that.”
 

"Honestly, I think we are all in the on the same boat, between teams, FIA, FOM,” said Ferrari’s Fred Vasseur. 
“We all want to go to races, we all want to race again and more, but it is like it is. We have a huge trust on the FIA and FOM on the calendar, they are working out to find solutions, and I’m really convinced that they are doing the best.”

Alpine boss Steve Nielsen, who when working for F1 was a key player in keeping the 2020 season alive, added: “I'm sure they've got a myriad of versions of the calendar, and they'll go for whichever one world events will allow them to do.”