San Marino MotoGP Preview: Is unpredictable the new predictable?

The only predictable thing about the 2020 MotoGP World Championship is how unpredictable it has ultimately been. 

While Brad Binder’s KTM win in Brno might have seemed a flash in the pan at the time, Miguel Oliveira’s success in Austria served to underline a Marc Marquez-less series is indeed wide open. 

And this is before you consider other flashpoints, such as Johann Zarco’s pole position, shaken up grids and wildly fluctuating fortunes for the perceived favourites.

This weekend sees the series prepare for the San Marino MotoGP - the first of two back-to-back events at Misano - and the first of nine races in just 11 weeks. It’s going to be a wild ride… so let’s limbre up and consider what we have to look forward to.

Make or break… or just break?

Here’s a fun fact for you. 

In five races, there have been 11 different riders on the podium. That’s 11 out of a possible 15 rostrum spots…

The only rider in the top 12 not to stand on the podium currently is Takaaki Nakagami - who in turn is the only rider to finish each race inside the top ten. Outside of this podium-less top 12 contains the likes of race winners Alex Rins. Cal Crutchlow and Danilo Petrucci.

In short, there are plenty more stories to unfurl ahead of what will be a very intense run right to the end of the season.

Currently Fabio Quartararo holds firm out front despite two weekends to forget in Austria, though his lead has been trimmed by three points to Andrea Dovizioso, who has been consistent if not nearly as metronomic as we normally see from him.

Indeed, never before have odds on potential title winners been so broad and fluctuating, so far be it from us to make a call beyond us saying it’ll be a few races yet before we can make one.

On paper, Quartararo has a shot at stamping his mark on proceedings just as he did in Jerez, though by the same token this applies to Maverick Vinales since Misano is well suited to the Yamaha chassis-engine combination.

Similarly, KTM has been elevated from potential contender to outside favourite around a circuit it tests regularly, not least because it has shown what it can do now (see below). 

By contrast, Ducati may be a bit nervous to come from its strongest circuit to one of its weaker ones, not least because turn-in and braking appear to be its Achilles heel. However, should Dovizioso push through and notch up good points, it puts him in a good position going forward.

But as the previous events have shown, we could mention any rider and any team because - based on form - there is no outstanding favourite. And we’re just fine with that!

Is KTM really a 2020 MotoGP challenger?

Yes… and while even we’re surprised to be saying this, it’s the upshot of several factors that are working in the firm’s favour.

One is a somewhat favourable calendar that strips out several of KTM’s weaker venues and elevates those which it has conducted plenty of testing - such as Jerez, Red Bull Ring and Misano..

But it’s also a team philosophy that is paying dividends now. Indeed, while there are perceived first teams and satellite teams, KTM appears to work as a four-rider factory outfit sharing data and respect, one that has given it extraordinary depth as the project comes good across all fronts.

This could potentially count against it when we get into the gritter end of the championship, not least because Pol Espargaro is a de facto team leader, but has seen both Binder and Oliveira grab the headlines.

Still, he has a great chance at Misano to firmly establish himself given last year he qualified on the front row and - in terms of like-for-like pace - enjoyed his best weekend around the Rimini circuit.

Whether you credit Dani Pedrosa’s work on development, the parity across its two teams or the dividends it is reaping by committing a long time ago to proteges like Binder and Oliveira, KTM’s 2020 form may come as a surprise, but really this is the fruition of many years of diligent work...

When the music stops, where will they sit?

While the season itself is in its relative infancy, we’re still getting deep enough into September to be surprised there are still a fair few seats on the 2021 MotoGP grid still unaccounted for.

Ducati can take blame for this, it’s somewhat questionable handling of Andrea Dovizioso’s impending exit meaning it has one factory and two satellite seats up for grabs.

Rumour has it the manufacturer will confirm its riders over the next week or so, with Pecco Bagnaia expected to be promoted with Jack Miller from Pramac Racing. While the Italian has shown flashes of excellence, when you consider Ducati courted everyone from Alex Rins, to Joan Mir, to Fabio Quartararo, to Maverick Vinales over the winter, there may be a little bit of egg on its poker face.

Then again, Dovizioso isn’t much better placed himself, which must be taken as a sure sign of how bad relations are between himself and Ducati - not that he’s going to admit it!

He says there are offers on the table, but declines to say which exactly, though Petronas SRT Yamaha were forced to deny he could be factored into its plans instead of Valentino Rossi as their negotiations drag on and on.

Ideally, Yamaha and Rossi would love to confirm that deal in Misano, but save for Petronas SRT’s denials, it has been suspiciously quiet on that front.

Which leaves Aprilia, who may be regretting promising Andrea Iannone first refusal depending on the outcome of his drugs suspension, not least because the hearing has been delayed to October. 

Logic suggests Aprilia make a play for the 15-time race winner or face missing out on both him and Iannone should the Italian lose his appeal.